Updated 21:17 UTCTrack record

Orlando City vs New England prediction

USA · MLS · 07 November 2026

Orlando City8th · 29 pts
1 - 0Full time
New England4th · 33 pts
Orlando CityDrawNew England
Prediction correctModel pick before kick-off: Orlando City to win (47%)
Our predictionOrlando City to winLean
47%Probability
2.13Fair odds
2-1Likely score
2.16-1.72Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Orlando City47%2.13
  • Draw22%4.56
  • New England31%3.21

Double chance

  • Orlando City or draw69%1.45
  • Orlando City or New England78%1.28
  • Draw or New England53%1.88

Goals

  • Over 2.574%1.34
  • Under 2.526%3.91

Both teams to score

  • Yes73%1.38
  • No27%3.64

Match in numbers

This season, Orlando City at home and New England away

Orlando City (home)New England (away)
Matches910
Points per game2.221.90
Goals scored per game2.001.90
Goals conceded per game1.001.50
Shots on target per game5.66.2
Shots on target conceded4.75.2
Clean sheets33%10%
Over 2.5 goals67%100%
Both teams scored67%80%
  • Orlando City: 8th in the table; the model rates their attack 5th and their defence 29th in the league.
  • New England: 4th in the table; the model rates their attack 19th and their defence 18th in the league.
  • Our predictions for Orlando City matches: 2 of 4 correct.
  • Our predictions for New England matches: 3 of 4 correct.

Match preview

A slight lean towards Orlando City (47%), though New England win 31% of the time in the model and the draw sits at 22%.

At home this season Orlando City average 2.22 points and 2.0 goals per game, conceding 1.0. Away from home New England take 1.90 points per game, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.5. Shots on target, which drive our ratings, read 5.6 per game for Orlando City at home and 6.2 for New England on the road.

Orlando City are 8th in the table while the model ranks them only 19th on performance, so it expects them to drift back.

New England are 4th in the table while the model ranks them only 17th on performance, so it expects them to drift back.

The model expects 2.16 goals from Orlando City and 1.72 from New England; 2-1 is the most likely scoreline at 8%, over 2.5 goals 74% and both teams to score 73%.

In their last 5 league meetings Orlando City won 3, New England won 1 and 1 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 2-18%
  • 1-18%
  • 2-27%
  • 1-27%
  • 3-16%

Orlando City form

DWDDL
  • Lat Charlotte0-42026-10-31
  • Dat Chicago Fire2-22026-10-29
  • Dvs New York City2-22026-10-24
  • Wvs DC United4-12026-10-17
  • Dat Toronto3-32026-10-14

New England form

WWWWL
  • Lvs Inter Miami1-22026-11-02
  • Wvs New York RB3-22026-10-28
  • Wat Philadelphia Union2-12026-10-24
  • Wvs Chicago Fire1-02026-10-17
  • Wat Cincinnati3-22026-10-14

Head to head

  • 2026-09-19New England 4-2 Orlando City
  • 2025-07-20New England 1-2 Orlando City
  • 2025-05-11Orlando City 3-3 New England
  • 2024-09-15Orlando City 3-0 New England
  • 2024-07-14New England 1-3 Orlando City

Prediction made 2026-11-07 20:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.