Moreirense vs Estrela prediction
Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Moreirense45%2.21
- Draw26%3.79
- Estrela28%3.51
Double chance
- Moreirense or draw72%1.40
- Moreirense or Estrela74%1.36
- Draw or Estrela55%1.82
Goals
- Over 2.546%2.15
- Under 2.554%1.87
Both teams to score
- Yes51%1.95
- No49%2.05
Match in numbers
This season, Moreirense at home and Estrela away
| Moreirense (home) | Estrela (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.25 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Shots on target per game | 2.8 | 4.8 |
| Shots on target conceded | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% |
- Estrela have lost their last 3 league matches.
- Moreirense: 10th in the table; the model rates their attack 17th and their defence 12th in the league.
- Estrela: 12th in the table; the model rates their attack 10th and their defence 16th in the league.
- Our predictions for Moreirense matches: 2 of 3 correct.
- Our predictions for Estrela matches: 2 of 3 correct.
Match preview
A slight lean towards Moreirense (45%), though Estrela win 28% of the time in the model and the draw sits at 26%.
At home this season Moreirense average 1.00 points and 1.2 goals per game, conceding 2.0. Away from home Estrela take 1.25 points per game, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.0. Shots on target, which drive our ratings, read 2.8 per game for Moreirense at home and 4.8 for Estrela on the road.
Current runs: Estrela have lost their last 3 league matches.
Moreirense are 10th in the table while the model ranks them only 15th on performance, so it expects them to drift back.
The model expects 1.32 goals from Moreirense and 1.21 from Estrela; 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12%, over 2.5 goals 46% and both teams to score 51%.
In their last 5 league meetings Moreirense won 1, Estrela won 1 and 3 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 1-112%
- 1-011%
- 0-110%
- 2-18%
- 1-28%
Moreirense form
- Wat Estoril3-12026-10-25
- Lvs Gil Vicente0-12026-10-09
- Dat Vitória Guimarães1-12026-09-20
- Wvs Marítimo3-12026-09-14
- Lvs Benfica0-42026-09-09
Estrela form
- Lvs Casa Pia0-22026-10-24
- Lat Arouca0-12026-10-11
- Lvs Académico de Viseu0-22026-09-20
- Dat Rio Ave3-32026-09-14
- Wvs Sporting Braga2-12026-09-10
Head to head
- 2026-05-02Moreirense 3-2 Estrela
- 2025-12-20Estrela 0-0 Moreirense
- 2025-03-02Moreirense 1-1 Estrela
- 2024-09-28Estrela 2-1 Moreirense
- 2024-04-07Moreirense 2-2 Estrela
Prediction made 2026-10-31 15:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.