Monza vs Napoli prediction

Italy · Serie A · 28 October 2026

Monza14th · 7 pts
Wed 28 Oct
Napoli9th · 10 pts
MonzaDrawNapoli
Our predictionNapoli to winStrong pick
60%Probability
1.66Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.15-1.80Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Monza19%5.29
  • Draw21%4.80
  • Napoli60%1.66

Double chance

  • Monza or draw40%2.52
  • Monza or Napoli79%1.26
  • Draw or Napoli81%1.23

Goals

  • Over 2.556%1.77
  • Under 2.544%2.30

Both teams to score

  • Yes57%1.76
  • No43%2.31

Match preview

The model makes Napoli clear favourites, with a 60% chance of winning. A draw is rated at 21% and a win for Monza at 19%.

Expected goals from the model: Monza 1.15, Napoli 1.80. The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), and the chance of three or more goals is 56%.

Monza have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (WLWLD).

Napoli have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (LWDWL).

In the table Monza are 14th with 7 points and Napoli 9th with 10.

In their last 5 league meetings Monza won 1, Napoli won 3 and 1 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-111%
  • 1-210%
  • 0-110%
  • 0-29%
  • 1-06%

Monza form

DLWLW
  • Wvs Cagliari4-02026-10-19
  • Lat Lazio1-32026-10-11
  • Wvs Sassuolo2-12026-09-18
  • Lat Lecce2-32026-09-13
  • Dat Parma1-12026-09-06

Napoli form

LWDWL
  • Lat Venezia0-12026-10-17
  • Wvs Frosinone3-02026-10-10
  • Dat Fiorentina1-12026-09-20
  • Wvs Bologna1-02026-09-13
  • Lat Inter Milan2-32026-09-05

Head to head

  • 2025-04-19Monza 0-1 Napoli
  • 2024-09-29Napoli 2-0 Monza
  • 2024-04-07Monza 2-4 Napoli
  • 2023-12-29Napoli 0-0 Monza
  • 2023-05-14Monza 2-0 Napoli

More Serie A predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.