Monza vs Cagliari prediction

Italy · Serie A · 19 October 2026

Monza
4 - 0Full time
Cagliari
MonzaDrawCagliari
Prediction missedModel pick before kick-off: Cagliari to win (48%)
Our predictionCagliari to winLean
48%Probability
2.10Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.14-1.63Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Monza27%3.64
  • Draw25%4.02
  • Cagliari48%2.10

Double chance

  • Monza or draw52%1.91
  • Monza or Cagliari75%1.33
  • Draw or Cagliari73%1.38

Goals

  • Over 2.552%1.91
  • Under 2.548%2.10

Both teams to score

  • Yes54%1.84
  • No46%2.20

Match preview

Cagliari have the edge at 48%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 25% and a win for Monza at 27%.

Expected goals from the model: Monza 1.14, Cagliari 1.63. The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), and the chance of three or more goals is 52%.

Monza have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (LWLDL).

Cagliari have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (DWWWL).

In their last 4 league meetings Monza won 1, Cagliari won 2 and 1 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-111%
  • 0-110%
  • 1-29%
  • 0-28%
  • 1-07%

Monza form

LDLWL
  • Lat Lazio1-32026-10-11
  • Wvs Sassuolo2-12026-09-18
  • Lat Lecce2-32026-09-13
  • Dat Parma1-12026-09-06
  • Lvs Udinese2-32026-08-29

Cagliari form

LWWWD
  • Dvs Juventus1-12026-10-11
  • Wat Udinese1-02026-09-19
  • Wat Atalanta2-12026-09-12
  • Wvs Lecce1-02026-09-07
  • Lvs Inter Milan0-12026-08-30

Head to head

  • 2025-03-30Cagliari 3-0 Monza
  • 2025-01-05Monza 1-2 Cagliari
  • 2024-03-16Monza 1-0 Cagliari
  • 2023-11-26Cagliari 1-1 Monza

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This match was played before FootyMath launched: the prediction was calculated afterwards from the matches before its date only, the same way as our backtest, and is not counted in the live track record. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.