Updated 07:17 UTCTrack record

Lecce vs Genoa prediction

Italy · Serie A · 01 November 2026

Lecce12th · 9 pts
Sun 01 Nov
Genoa17th · 4 pts
LecceDrawGenoa
Our predictionLecce to winOpen game
38%Probability
2.65Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.09-1.13Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Lecce38%2.65
  • Draw30%3.39
  • Genoa33%3.06

Double chance

  • Lecce or draw67%1.49
  • Lecce or Genoa70%1.42
  • Draw or Genoa62%1.61

Goals

  • Over 2.538%2.62
  • Under 2.562%1.62

Both teams to score

  • Yes45%2.24
  • No55%1.81

Match in numbers

This season, Lecce at home and Genoa away

Lecce (home)Genoa (away)
Matches33
Points per game1.000.00
Goals scored per game1.330.33
Goals conceded per game2.671.67
Shots on target per game3.72.3
Shots on target conceded8.03.0
Clean sheets0%0%
Over 2.5 goals100%33%
Both teams scored67%33%
  • Lecce: 12th in the table; the model rates their attack 19th and their defence 16th in the league.
  • Genoa: 17th in the table; the model rates their attack 18th and their defence 10th in the league.

Match preview

An open game: no outcome reaches 45%. Lecce 38%, draw 30%, Genoa 33%.

At home this season Lecce average 1.00 points and 1.3 goals per game, conceding 2.7. Away from home Genoa take 0.00 points per game, scoring 0.3 and conceding 1.7. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, Lecce manage 3.7 per home game and Genoa 2.3 per away game.

Lecce are 12th in the table while the model ranks them only 19th on performance, so it expects them to drift back.

Expected goals from the model: Lecce 1.09, Genoa 1.13. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%), and the chance of three or more goals is 38%.

In their last 5 league meetings Lecce won 1, Genoa won 2 and 2 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-113%
  • 0-113%
  • 1-012%
  • 0-011%
  • 1-28%

Lecce form

LWLLW
  • Wat Udinese3-02026-10-18
  • Lvs Bologna1-22026-10-11
  • Lat AC Milan0-32026-09-20
  • Wvs Monza3-22026-09-13
  • Lat Cagliari0-12026-09-07

Genoa form

LDLWL
  • Lat Roma0-22026-10-17
  • Wvs Fiorentina2-12026-10-10
  • Lat Parma1-22026-09-20
  • Dvs Frosinone1-12026-09-12
  • Lvs Como1-42026-09-04

Head to head

  • 2026-05-24Lecce 1-0 Genoa
  • 2025-08-23Genoa 0-0 Lecce
  • 2025-03-14Genoa 2-1 Lecce
  • 2025-01-05Lecce 0-0 Genoa
  • 2024-01-28Genoa 2-1 Lecce

More Serie A predictions

All matches ›

Prediction last updated 2026-10-24 07:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.