Updated 07:17 UTCTrack record

Lazio vs Cagliari prediction

Italy · Serie A · 01 November 2026

Lazio2nd · 19 pts
Sun 01 Nov
Cagliari8th · 13 pts
LazioDrawCagliari
Our predictionLazio to winLean
58%Probability
1.72Fair odds
1-0Likely score
1.55-0.95Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Lazio58%1.72
  • Draw23%4.31
  • Cagliari19%5.40

Double chance

  • Lazio or draw81%1.23
  • Lazio or Cagliari77%1.30
  • Draw or Cagliari42%2.40

Goals

  • Over 2.546%2.19
  • Under 2.554%1.84

Both teams to score

  • Yes48%2.08
  • No52%1.93

Match in numbers

This season, Lazio at home and Cagliari away

Lazio (home)Cagliari (away)
Matches34
Points per game2.332.25
Goals scored per game2.001.00
Goals conceded per game1.001.25
Shots on target per game5.04.2
Shots on target conceded4.74.2
Clean sheets33%50%
Over 2.5 goals67%50%
Both teams scored67%25%
  • Lazio have won their last 3 league matches.
  • Lazio: 2nd in the table; the model rates their attack 11th and their defence 8th in the league.
  • Cagliari: 8th in the table; the model rates their attack 17th and their defence 12th in the league.

Match preview

A slight lean towards Lazio (58%), though Cagliari win 19% of the time in the model and the draw sits at 23%.

At home this season Lazio average 2.33 points and 2.0 goals per game, conceding 1.0. Away from home Cagliari take 2.25 points per game, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.2. Shots on target, which drive our ratings, read 5.0 per game for Lazio at home and 4.2 for Cagliari on the road.

Current runs: Lazio have won their last 3 league matches.

Lazio are 2nd in the table while the model ranks them only 8th on performance, so it expects them to drift back.

Cagliari are 8th in the table while the model ranks them only 16th on performance, so it expects them to drift back.

The model expects 1.55 goals from Lazio and 0.95 from Cagliari; 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 13%, over 2.5 goals 46% and both teams to score 48%.

In their last 5 league meetings Lazio won 4 and 1 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-013%
  • 1-112%
  • 2-010%
  • 2-19%
  • 0-18%

Lazio form

WDWWW
  • Wat Juventus3-02026-10-18
  • Wvs Monza3-12026-10-11
  • Wat Venezia2-02026-09-19
  • Dvs AC Milan2-22026-09-12
  • Wat Udinese2-12026-09-07

Cagliari form

WWWDL
  • Lat Monza0-42026-10-19
  • Dvs Juventus1-12026-10-11
  • Wat Udinese1-02026-09-19
  • Wat Atalanta2-12026-09-12
  • Wvs Lecce1-02026-09-07

Head to head

  • 2026-02-21Cagliari 0-0 Lazio
  • 2025-11-03Lazio 2-0 Cagliari
  • 2025-02-03Cagliari 1-2 Lazio
  • 2024-11-04Lazio 2-1 Cagliari
  • 2024-02-10Cagliari 1-3 Lazio

More Serie A predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-24 07:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.