Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction

Germany · Bundesliga · 25 October 2026

Hoffenheim14th · 6 pts
Sun 25 Oct
Bayer Leverkusen4th · 13 pts
HoffenheimDrawBayer Leverkusen
Our predictionBayer Leverkusen to winOpen game
40%Probability
2.49Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.79-1.66Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Hoffenheim36%2.77
  • Draw24%4.23
  • Bayer Leverkusen40%2.49

Double chance

  • Hoffenheim or draw60%1.67
  • Hoffenheim or Bayer Leverkusen76%1.31
  • Draw or Bayer Leverkusen64%1.57

Goals

  • Over 2.567%1.49
  • Under 2.533%3.03

Both teams to score

  • Yes67%1.49
  • No33%3.06

Match preview

An open game: no outcome reaches 45%. Hoffenheim 36%, draw 24%, Bayer Leverkusen 40%.

Expected goals from the model: Hoffenheim 1.79, Bayer Leverkusen 1.66. The single most likely score is 1-1 (9%), and the chance of three or more goals is 67%.

Hoffenheim have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (WLLWL).

Bayer Leverkusen have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 5 league matches (WWWDW).

In the table Hoffenheim are 14th with 6 points and Bayer Leverkusen 4th with 13.

In their last 5 league meetings Hoffenheim won 2, Bayer Leverkusen won 3 and 0 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-19%
  • 2-18%
  • 1-28%
  • 2-27%
  • 1-06%

Hoffenheim form

LWLLW
  • Wat Borussia M'gladbach2-12026-10-18
  • Lvs Hamburger SV2-32026-10-10
  • Lat Paderborn1-32026-09-20
  • Wvs Stuttgart2-12026-09-12
  • Lvs Borussia Dortmund2-32026-09-05

Bayer Leverkusen form

WDWWW
  • Wvs Freiburg2-12026-10-18
  • Wat Mainz 054-32026-10-10
  • Wvs RB Leipzig2-02026-09-20
  • Dat Augsburg2-22026-09-12
  • Wvs Union Berlin4-02026-09-05

Head to head

  • 2026-01-17Hoffenheim 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen
  • 2025-08-23Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 Hoffenheim
  • 2025-02-02Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 Hoffenheim
  • 2024-09-14Hoffenheim 1-4 Bayer Leverkusen
  • 2024-03-30Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 Hoffenheim

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.