Augsburg vs Union Berlin prediction

Germany · Bundesliga · 24 October 2026

Augsburg10th · 8 pts
Sat 24 Oct
Union Berlin17th · 5 pts
AugsburgDrawUnion Berlin
Our predictionAugsburg to winLean
55%Probability
1.80Fair odds
2-1Likely score
1.96-1.24Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Augsburg55%1.80
  • Draw22%4.44
  • Union Berlin22%4.54

Double chance

  • Augsburg or draw78%1.28
  • Augsburg or Union Berlin78%1.29
  • Draw or Union Berlin45%2.25

Goals

  • Over 2.562%1.61
  • Under 2.538%2.64

Both teams to score

  • Yes61%1.64
  • No39%2.56

Match preview

Augsburg have the edge at 55%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 22% and a win for Union Berlin at 22%.

Expected goals from the model: Augsburg 1.96, Union Berlin 1.24. The single most likely score is 2-1 (10%), and the chance of three or more goals is 62%.

Augsburg have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (LDLDW).

Union Berlin have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (DWLLL).

In the table Augsburg are 10th with 8 points and Union Berlin 17th with 5.

In their last 5 league meetings Augsburg won 2, Union Berlin won 2 and 1 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 2-110%
  • 1-110%
  • 1-08%
  • 2-08%
  • 3-16%

Augsburg form

WDLDL
  • Lat Elversberg3-42026-10-17
  • Dvs Bayern Munich2-22026-10-10
  • Lat Werder Bremen2-32026-09-19
  • Dvs Bayer Leverkusen2-22026-09-12
  • Wat Eintracht Frankfurt4-12026-09-06

Union Berlin form

LLLWD
  • Dvs Borussia Dortmund0-02026-10-17
  • Wvs Elversberg1-02026-10-10
  • Lat Bayern Munich0-72026-09-18
  • Lvs Schalke 041-32026-09-11
  • Lat Bayer Leverkusen0-42026-09-05

Head to head

  • 2026-05-16Union Berlin 4-0 Augsburg
  • 2026-01-15Augsburg 1-1 Union Berlin
  • 2025-05-17Augsburg 1-2 Union Berlin
  • 2025-01-15Union Berlin 0-2 Augsburg
  • 2024-04-12Augsburg 2-0 Union Berlin

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.