Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen prediction

Germany · Bundesliga · 24 October 2026

Mainz 055th · 10 pts
Sat 24 Oct
Werder Bremen8th · 9 pts
Mainz 05DrawWerder Bremen
Our predictionMainz 05 to winLean
55%Probability
1.83Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.92-1.28Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Mainz 0555%1.83
  • Draw23%4.44
  • Werder Bremen23%4.38

Double chance

  • Mainz 05 or draw77%1.30
  • Mainz 05 or Werder Bremen77%1.29
  • Draw or Werder Bremen45%2.20

Goals

  • Over 2.562%1.61
  • Under 2.538%2.64

Both teams to score

  • Yes61%1.63
  • No39%2.59

Match preview

Mainz 05 have the edge at 55%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 23% and a win for Werder Bremen at 23%.

Expected goals from the model: Mainz 05 1.92, Werder Bremen 1.28. The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%), and the chance of three or more goals is 62%.

Mainz 05 have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (WLWLW).

Werder Bremen have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 league matches (DDWDW).

In the table Mainz 05 are 5th with 10 points and Werder Bremen 8th with 9.

In their last 5 league meetings Mainz 05 won 1, Werder Bremen won 3 and 1 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-110%
  • 2-110%
  • 1-08%
  • 2-08%
  • 1-26%

Mainz 05 form

WLWLW
  • Wat Schalke 041-02026-10-17
  • Lvs Bayer Leverkusen3-42026-10-10
  • Wat Borussia M'gladbach4-32026-09-19
  • Lvs Eintracht Frankfurt1-32026-09-12
  • Wat Hamburger SV5-02026-09-06

Werder Bremen form

WDWDD
  • Dvs Paderborn2-22026-10-17
  • Dat Borussia Dortmund2-22026-10-09
  • Wvs Augsburg3-22026-09-19
  • Dat Köln1-12026-09-12
  • Wvs RB Leipzig3-12026-09-05

Head to head

  • 2026-03-15Werder Bremen 0-2 Mainz 05
  • 2025-11-01Mainz 05 1-1 Werder Bremen
  • 2025-01-31Werder Bremen 1-0 Mainz 05
  • 2024-09-15Mainz 05 1-2 Werder Bremen
  • 2024-02-03Mainz 05 0-1 Werder Bremen

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.