Freiburg vs Bayern Munich prediction

Germany · Bundesliga · 25 October 2026

Freiburg3rd · 13 pts
Sun 25 Oct
Bayern Munich1st · 14 pts
FreiburgDrawBayern Munich
Our predictionBayern Munich to winStrong pick
66%Probability
1.52Fair odds
1-2Likely score
1.18-2.26Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Freiburg16%6.26
  • Draw18%5.50
  • Bayern Munich66%1.52

Double chance

  • Freiburg or draw34%2.93
  • Freiburg or Bayern Munich82%1.22
  • Draw or Bayern Munich84%1.19

Goals

  • Over 2.567%1.50
  • Under 2.533%3.01

Both teams to score

  • Yes62%1.62
  • No38%2.63

Match preview

The model makes Bayern Munich clear favourites, with a 66% chance of winning. A draw is rated at 18% and a win for Freiburg at 16%.

Expected goals from the model: Freiburg 1.18, Bayern Munich 2.26. The single most likely score is 1-2 (10%), and the chance of three or more goals is 67%.

Freiburg have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (LWDWW).

Bayern Munich have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 league matches (WDWWD).

In the table Freiburg are 3rd with 13 points and Bayern Munich 1st with 14.

In their last 5 league meetings Freiburg won 0, Bayern Munich won 4 and 1 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-210%
  • 1-18%
  • 0-28%
  • 0-17%
  • 1-37%

Freiburg form

WWDWL
  • Lat Bayer Leverkusen1-22026-10-18
  • Wvs Schalke 042-12026-10-11
  • Dat Eintracht Frankfurt2-22026-09-19
  • Wvs Borussia M'gladbach5-02026-09-12
  • Wat Paderborn1-02026-09-05

Bayern Munich form

DWWDW
  • Wvs RB Leipzig6-12026-10-17
  • Dat Augsburg2-22026-10-10
  • Wvs Union Berlin7-02026-09-18
  • Wat Elversberg2-12026-09-13
  • Dat Schalke 040-02026-09-05

Head to head

  • 2026-04-04Freiburg 2-3 Bayern Munich
  • 2025-11-22Bayern Munich 6-2 Freiburg
  • 2025-01-25Freiburg 1-2 Bayern Munich
  • 2024-09-01Bayern Munich 2-0 Freiburg
  • 2024-03-01Freiburg 2-2 Bayern Munich

More Bundesliga predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.