Fiorentina vs Atalanta prediction

Italy · Serie A · 29 October 2026

Fiorentina18th · 4 pts
Thu 29 Oct
Atalanta11th · 9 pts
FiorentinaDrawAtalanta
Our predictionAtalanta to winOpen game
41%Probability
2.44Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.38-1.54Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Fiorentina33%3.07
  • Draw26%3.78
  • Atalanta41%2.44

Double chance

  • Fiorentina or draw59%1.69
  • Fiorentina or Atalanta74%1.36
  • Draw or Atalanta67%1.48

Goals

  • Over 2.556%1.79
  • Under 2.544%2.27

Both teams to score

  • Yes59%1.71
  • No41%2.41

Match preview

An open game: no outcome reaches 45%. Fiorentina 33%, draw 26%, Atalanta 41%.

Expected goals from the model: Fiorentina 1.38, Atalanta 1.54. The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), and the chance of three or more goals is 56%.

Fiorentina have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (LLDWL).

Atalanta have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 league matches (LWLLL).

In the table Fiorentina are 18th with 4 points and Atalanta 11th with 9.

In their last 5 league meetings Fiorentina won 2, Atalanta won 2 and 1 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-111%
  • 1-29%
  • 0-19%
  • 2-18%
  • 1-08%

Fiorentina form

LWDLL
  • Lvs Como1-32026-10-18
  • Lat Genoa1-22026-10-10
  • Dvs Napoli1-12026-09-20
  • Wat Venezia4-22026-09-11
  • Lvs Torino1-22026-09-05

Atalanta form

LLLWL
  • Lat AC Milan2-32026-10-18
  • Wvs Venezia3-12026-10-12
  • Lat Juventus0-22026-09-20
  • Lvs Cagliari1-22026-09-12
  • Lat Roma1-22026-09-05

Head to head

  • 2026-05-22Fiorentina 1-1 Atalanta
  • 2025-11-30Atalanta 2-0 Fiorentina
  • 2025-03-30Fiorentina 1-0 Atalanta
  • 2024-09-15Atalanta 3-2 Fiorentina
  • 2024-06-02Atalanta 2-3 Fiorentina

More Serie A predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.