Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Famalicão44%2.26
- Draw29%3.46
- Arouca27%3.72
Double chance
- Famalicão or draw73%1.37
- Famalicão or Arouca71%1.41
- Draw or Arouca56%1.79
Goals
- Over 2.541%2.44
- Under 2.559%1.70
Both teams to score
- Yes46%2.17
- No54%1.85
Match in numbers
This season, Famalicão at home and Arouca away
| Famalicão (home) | Arouca (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 5 |
| Points per game | 0.50 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored per game | 0.75 | 0.80 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.75 | 0.80 |
| Shots on target per game | 2.2 | 2.8 |
| Shots on target conceded | 3.8 | 5.0 |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 20% |
- Arouca have won their last 3 league matches.
- Famalicão: 11th in the table; the model rates their attack 7th and their defence 7th in the league.
- Arouca: 5th in the table; the model rates their attack 8th and their defence 9th in the league.
- Our predictions for Famalicão matches: 3 of 3 correct.
- Our predictions for Arouca matches: 2 of 3 correct.
Match preview
Hard to call. The model spreads it 44% for Famalicão, 29% for the draw and 27% for Arouca.
At home this season Famalicão average 0.50 points and 0.8 goals per game, conceding 1.8. Away from home Arouca take 1.60 points per game, scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.8. Shots on target, which drive our ratings, read 2.2 per game for Famalicão at home and 2.8 for Arouca on the road.
Current runs: Arouca have won their last 3 league matches.
Famalicão sit 11th in the table, but their underlying numbers rank 6th in the league, so the model rates them higher than their position suggests.
The model expects 1.33 goals from Famalicão and 0.99 from Arouca; 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 13%, over 2.5 goals 41% and both teams to score 46%.
In their last 5 league meetings Famalicão won 2, Arouca won 1 and 2 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 1-013%
- 1-113%
- 0-110%
- 0-010%
- 2-09%
Famalicão form
- Lat Sporting Braga0-32026-11-01
- Wat Rio Ave4-02026-10-25
- Lvs Alverca1-42026-10-12
- Wat Nacional4-02026-09-19
- Dvs Sporting CP1-12026-09-13
Arouca form
- Wvs Nacional1-02026-11-01
- Wat Alverca1-02026-10-24
- Wvs Estrela1-02026-10-11
- Dat Sporting CP2-22026-09-19
- Lvs Santa Clara1-22026-09-13
Head to head
- 2026-03-06Famalicão 1-0 Arouca
- 2025-10-05Arouca 1-1 Famalicão
- 2025-04-05Arouca 1-2 Famalicão
- 2024-11-09Famalicão 0-0 Arouca
- 2024-02-23Arouca 3-2 Famalicão
Prediction made 2026-11-06 20:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.