Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Excelsior20%4.98
- Draw23%4.34
- Twente57%1.76
Double chance
- Excelsior or draw43%2.32
- Excelsior or Twente77%1.30
- Draw or Twente80%1.25
Goals
- Over 2.555%1.81
- Under 2.545%2.23
Both teams to score
- Yes55%1.81
- No45%2.23
Match in numbers
This season, Excelsior at home and Twente away
| Excelsior (home) | Twente (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 5 |
| Points per game | 0.75 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.25 | 1.80 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Shots on target per game | 3.2 | 5.6 |
| Shots on target conceded | 6.2 | 4.2 |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 60% |
- Excelsior have lost their last 3 league matches.
- Twente have scored in 9 straight league matches.
- Excelsior: 13th in the table; the model rates their attack 16th and their defence 12th in the league.
- Twente: 4th in the table; the model rates their attack 3rd and their defence 1st in the league.
- Our predictions for Excelsior matches: 3 of 3 correct.
- Our predictions for Twente matches: 1 of 3 correct.
Match preview
A slight lean towards Twente (57%), though Excelsior win 20% of the time in the model and the draw sits at 23%.
At home this season Excelsior average 0.75 points and 1.2 goals per game, conceding 2.5. Away from home Twente take 1.60 points per game, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.0. Shots on target, which drive our ratings, read 3.2 per game for Excelsior at home and 5.6 for Twente on the road.
Current runs: Excelsior have lost their last 3 league matches; Twente have scored in 9 straight league matches.
The model expects 1.09 goals from Excelsior and 1.80 from Twente; 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11%, over 2.5 goals 55% and both teams to score 55%.
In their last 5 league meetings Excelsior won 1, Twente won 2 and 2 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 1-111%
- 0-110%
- 1-210%
- 0-29%
- 1-06%
Excelsior form
- Lat Fortuna Sittard0-12026-10-25
- Lat Heerenveen0-42026-10-16
- Lvs Groningen1-52026-10-11
- Dat Ajax2-22026-09-19
- Lvs Utrecht1-22026-09-13
Twente form
- Wat AZ2-02026-10-25
- Lvs Utrecht1-22026-10-18
- Dat Fortuna Sittard1-12026-10-10
- Wvs PSV3-22026-09-20
- Wvs ADO Den Haag2-02026-09-12
Head to head
- 2026-01-24Twente 0-0 Excelsior
- 2025-08-30Excelsior 1-0 Twente
- 2024-02-10Excelsior 0-3 Twente
- 2023-12-08Twente 4-2 Excelsior
- 2023-04-01Excelsior 0-0 Twente
Prediction made 2026-11-01 13:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.