Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Estrela9%10.94
- Draw14%7.31
- Benfica77%1.30
Double chance
- Estrela or draw23%4.38
- Estrela or Benfica86%1.16
- Draw or Benfica91%1.10
Goals
- Over 2.561%1.64
- Under 2.539%2.55
Both teams to score
- Yes54%1.87
- No46%2.16
Match in numbers
This season, Estrela at home and Benfica away
| Estrela (home) | Benfica (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.20 | 3.40 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Shots on target per game | 4.0 | 5.8 |
| Shots on target conceded | 4.8 | 3.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
- Estrela have lost their last 4 league matches.
- Benfica have won their last 3 league matches.
- Estrela: 12th in the table; the model rates their attack 10th and their defence 16th in the league.
- Benfica: 2nd in the table; the model rates their attack 1st and their defence 4th in the league.
- Our predictions for Estrela matches: 2 of 3 correct.
- Our predictions for Benfica matches: 3 of 3 correct.
Match preview
Benfica go in as strong favourites: 77% to win, against 14% for a draw and 9% for Estrela.
At home this season Estrela average 1.00 points and 1.2 goals per game, conceding 1.8. Away from home Benfica take 2.40 points per game, scoring 3.4 and conceding 0.8. Shots on target, which drive our ratings, read 4.0 per game for Estrela at home and 5.8 for Benfica on the road.
Current runs: Estrela have lost their last 4 league matches; Benfica have won their last 3 league matches.
The model expects 0.92 goals from Estrela and 2.22 from Benfica; 0-2 is the most likely scoreline at 11%, over 2.5 goals 61% and both teams to score 54%.
Benfica won all 5 of the last league meetings between the two.
Most likely scores
- 0-211%
- 1-210%
- 0-110%
- 1-19%
- 0-38%
Estrela form
- Lat Moreirense1-22026-10-31
- Lvs Casa Pia0-22026-10-24
- Lat Arouca0-12026-10-11
- Lvs Académico de Viseu0-22026-09-20
- Dat Rio Ave3-32026-09-14
Benfica form
- Wvs Alverca1-02026-11-02
- Wat Santa Clara2-12026-10-26
- Wvs Vitória Guimarães2-02026-10-11
- Lat Porto1-32026-09-20
- Wvs Gil Vicente3-12026-09-13
Head to head
- 2026-01-25Benfica 4-0 Estrela
- 2025-08-16Estrela 0-1 Benfica
- 2025-02-02Estrela 2-3 Benfica
- 2024-08-24Benfica 1-0 Estrela
- 2024-01-29Estrela 1-4 Benfica
Prediction made 2026-11-08 20:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.