Casa Pia vs Sporting CP prediction

Portugal · Primeira Liga · 30 October 2026

Casa Pia17th · 4 pts
Fri 30 Oct
Sporting CP3rd · 18 pts
Casa PiaDrawSporting CP
Our predictionSporting CP to winStrong pick
81%Probability
1.23Fair odds
0-2Likely score
0.69-2.23Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Casa Pia6%16.94
  • Draw13%7.87
  • Sporting CP81%1.23

Double chance

  • Casa Pia or draw19%5.37
  • Casa Pia or Sporting CP87%1.15
  • Draw or Sporting CP94%1.06

Goals

  • Over 2.556%1.79
  • Under 2.544%2.27

Both teams to score

  • Yes44%2.26
  • No56%1.79

Match preview

The model makes Sporting CP clear favourites, with a 81% chance of winning. A draw is rated at 13% and a win for Casa Pia at 6%.

Expected goals from the model: Casa Pia 0.69, Sporting CP 2.23. The single most likely score is 0-2 (13%), and the chance of three or more goals is 56%.

Casa Pia have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (LWLDL).

Sporting CP have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 league matches (WDDWW).

In the table Casa Pia are 17th with 4 points and Sporting CP 3rd with 18.

In their last 5 league meetings Casa Pia won 0, Sporting CP won 5 and 0 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 0-213%
  • 0-112%
  • 0-310%
  • 1-29%
  • 1-18%

Casa Pia form

LDLWL
  • Lvs Santa Clara0-12026-10-10
  • Wat Estoril2-12026-09-20
  • Lvs Porto1-42026-09-12
  • Dat Vitória Guimarães0-02026-09-06
  • Lvs Moreirense0-12026-08-30

Sporting CP form

WWDDW
  • Wat Sporting Braga3-12026-10-09
  • Dvs Arouca2-22026-09-19
  • Dat Famalicão1-12026-09-13
  • Wvs Nacional2-02026-09-05
  • Wat Rio Ave4-02026-08-28

Head to head

  • 2026-01-16Sporting CP 3-0 Casa Pia
  • 2025-08-08Casa Pia 0-2 Sporting CP
  • 2025-03-09Casa Pia 1-3 Sporting CP
  • 2024-10-05Sporting CP 2-0 Casa Pia
  • 2024-01-29Sporting CP 8-0 Casa Pia

More Primeira Liga predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.