Cardiff City vs Burnley prediction
Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Cardiff City48%2.08
- Draw23%4.29
- Burnley29%3.49
Double chance
- Cardiff City or draw71%1.40
- Cardiff City or Burnley77%1.30
- Draw or Burnley52%1.93
Goals
- Over 2.562%1.62
- Under 2.538%2.61
Both teams to score
- Yes63%1.59
- No37%2.71
Match in numbers
This season, Cardiff City at home and Burnley away
| Cardiff City (home) | Burnley (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 7 | 7 |
| Points per game | 1.86 | 0.71 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.29 | 1.43 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.29 | 2.29 |
| Shots on target per game | 6.6 | 4.8 |
| Shots on target conceded | 4.9 | 6.2 |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 71% |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 86% |
- Burnley have gone 5 league matches without a win.
- Cardiff City: 18th in the table; the model rates their attack 4th and their defence 24th in the league.
- Burnley: 22nd in the table; the model rates their attack 9th and their defence 19th in the league.
- Our predictions for Cardiff City matches: 2 of 4 correct.
- Our predictions for Burnley matches: 1 of 4 correct.
Match preview
Cardiff City have the edge at 48%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 23% and a win for Burnley at 29%.
At home this season Cardiff City average 1.86 points and 2.3 goals per game, conceding 1.3. Away from home Burnley take 0.71 points per game, scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.3. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, Cardiff City manage 6.6 per home game and Burnley 4.8 per away game.
Form lines: Burnley have gone 5 league matches without a win.
Burnley sit 22nd in the table, but their underlying numbers rank 11th in the league, so the model rates them higher than their position suggests.
Expected goals from the model: Cardiff City 1.69, Burnley 1.49. The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%), and the chance of three or more goals is 62%.
In their last 4 league meetings Burnley won 3 and 1 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 1-110%
- 2-19%
- 1-28%
- 1-07%
- 2-27%
Cardiff City form
- Dvs West Ham United3-32026-11-04
- Lat Wolverhampton Wanderers0-32026-10-31
- Wvs Birmingham City1-02026-10-24
- Dat Middlesbrough2-22026-10-17
- Wvs Watford5-12026-10-13
Burnley form
- Dat Queens Park Rangers1-12026-11-03
- Dvs Portsmouth0-02026-10-31
- Lat Lincoln City1-42026-10-24
- Lvs Wolverhampton Wanderers1-22026-10-16
- Dvs Charlton Athletic2-22026-10-13
Head to head
- 2025-03-04Cardiff City 1-2 Burnley
- 2024-08-17Burnley 5-0 Cardiff City
- 2023-05-08Burnley 3-0 Cardiff City
- 2022-10-01Cardiff City 1-1 Burnley
Prediction made 2026-11-07 14:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.