Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Benfica81%1.24
- Draw12%8.06
- Alverca7%14.33
Double chance
- Benfica or draw93%1.08
- Benfica or Alverca88%1.14
- Draw or Alverca19%5.16
Goals
- Over 2.561%1.64
- Under 2.539%2.56
Both teams to score
- Yes50%2.00
- No50%2.00
Match in numbers
This season, Benfica at home and Alverca away
| Benfica (home) | Alverca (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Points per game | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.25 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| Shots on target per game | 7.2 | 5.0 |
| Shots on target conceded | 2.0 | 3.8 |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 75% |
- Benfica have scored in 23 straight league matches.
- Benfica: 2nd in the table; the model rates their attack 1st and their defence 4th in the league.
- Alverca: 10th in the table; the model rates their attack 11th and their defence 10th in the league.
- Our predictions for Benfica matches: 3 of 3 correct.
- Our predictions for Alverca matches: 1 of 3 correct.
Match preview
Benfica go in as strong favourites: 81% to win, against 12% for a draw and 7% for Alverca.
At home this season Benfica average 2.50 points and 2.2 goals per game, conceding 1.0. Away from home Alverca take 1.50 points per game, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.8. Shots on target, which drive our ratings, read 7.2 per game for Benfica at home and 5.0 for Alverca on the road.
Current runs: Benfica have scored in 23 straight league matches.
The model expects 2.34 goals from Benfica and 0.81 from Alverca; 2-0 is the most likely scoreline at 12%, over 2.5 goals 61% and both teams to score 50%.
Benfica won both of the last league meetings between the two.
Most likely scores
- 2-012%
- 1-010%
- 2-110%
- 3-09%
- 1-18%
Benfica form
- Wat Santa Clara2-12026-10-26
- Wvs Vitória Guimarães2-02026-10-11
- Lat Porto1-32026-09-20
- Wvs Gil Vicente3-12026-09-13
- Wat Moreirense4-02026-09-09
Alverca form
- Lvs Arouca0-12026-10-24
- Wat Famalicão4-12026-10-12
- Wvs Rio Ave1-02026-09-19
- Wat Nacional3-12026-09-12
- Lvs Sporting Braga1-22026-09-05
Head to head
- 2026-02-08Benfica 2-1 Alverca
- 2025-08-31Alverca 1-2 Benfica
Prediction made 2026-11-02 19:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.