Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Alverca57%1.75
- Draw25%4.00
- Casa Pia18%5.56
Double chance
- Alverca or draw82%1.22
- Alverca or Casa Pia75%1.33
- Draw or Casa Pia43%2.33
Goals
- Over 2.542%2.40
- Under 2.558%1.71
Both teams to score
- Yes44%2.27
- No56%1.79
Match in numbers
This season, Alverca at home and Casa Pia away
| Alverca (home) | Casa Pia (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Shots on target per game | 2.8 | 3.2 |
| Shots on target conceded | 4.6 | 5.6 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% |
- Alverca: 11th in the table; the model rates their attack 11th and their defence 10th in the league.
- Casa Pia: 17th in the table; the model rates their attack 18th and their defence 14th in the league.
- Our predictions for Alverca matches: 1 of 3 correct.
- Our predictions for Casa Pia matches: 1 of 3 correct.
Match preview
A slight lean towards Alverca (57%), though Casa Pia win 18% of the time in the model and the draw sits at 25%.
At home this season Alverca average 1.00 points and 1.0 goals per game, conceding 1.2. Away from home Casa Pia take 1.40 points per game, scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.8. Shots on target, which drive our ratings, read 2.8 per game for Alverca at home and 3.2 for Casa Pia on the road.
The model expects 1.51 goals from Alverca and 0.84 from Casa Pia; 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 15%, over 2.5 goals 42% and both teams to score 44%.
Alverca won both of the last league meetings between the two.
Most likely scores
- 1-015%
- 1-112%
- 2-011%
- 0-09%
- 2-19%
Alverca form
- Lat Benfica0-12026-11-02
- Lvs Arouca0-12026-10-24
- Wat Famalicão4-12026-10-12
- Wvs Rio Ave1-02026-09-19
- Wat Nacional3-12026-09-12
Casa Pia form
- Lvs Sporting CP0-22026-10-30
- Wat Estrela2-02026-10-24
- Lvs Santa Clara0-12026-10-10
- Wat Estoril2-12026-09-20
- Lvs Porto1-42026-09-12
Head to head
- 2026-04-12Alverca 3-1 Casa Pia
- 2025-11-29Casa Pia 0-2 Alverca
Prediction made 2026-11-07 17:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.