Updated 07:17 UTCTrack record

AC Milan vs Inter Milan prediction

Italy · Serie A · 31 October 2026

AC Milan4th · 15 pts
Sat 31 Oct
Inter Milan1st · 19 pts
AC MilanDrawInter Milan
Our predictionInter Milan to winLean
50%Probability
2.02Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.25-1.68Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • AC Milan26%3.90
  • Draw25%4.03
  • Inter Milan50%2.02

Double chance

  • AC Milan or draw50%1.98
  • AC Milan or Inter Milan75%1.33
  • Draw or Inter Milan74%1.34

Goals

  • Over 2.556%1.78
  • Under 2.544%2.27

Both teams to score

  • Yes58%1.73
  • No42%2.37

Match in numbers

This season, AC Milan at home and Inter Milan away

AC Milan (home)Inter Milan (away)
Matches33
Points per game3.002.33
Goals scored per game2.672.00
Goals conceded per game0.671.00
Shots on target per game5.06.7
Shots on target conceded3.02.7
Clean sheets67%33%
Over 2.5 goals67%67%
Both teams scored33%67%
  • AC Milan are unbeaten in 7 league matches.
  • Inter Milan are unbeaten in 17 league matches.
  • AC Milan: 4th in the table; the model rates their attack 9th and their defence 6th in the league.
  • Inter Milan: 1st in the table; the model rates their attack 1st and their defence 5th in the league.

Match preview

Inter Milan have the edge at 50%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 25% and a win for AC Milan at 26%.

At home this season AC Milan average 3.00 points and 2.7 goals per game, conceding 0.7. Away from home Inter Milan take 2.33 points per game, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, AC Milan manage 5.0 per home game and Inter Milan 6.7 per away game.

Form lines: AC Milan are unbeaten in 7 league matches; Inter Milan are unbeaten in 17 league matches.

Expected goals from the model: AC Milan 1.25, Inter Milan 1.68. The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), and the chance of three or more goals is 56%.

In their last 5 league meetings AC Milan won 3, Inter Milan won 1 and 1 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-111%
  • 1-29%
  • 0-19%
  • 0-28%
  • 2-17%

AC Milan form

DDWDW
  • Wvs Atalanta3-22026-10-18
  • Dat Sassuolo1-12026-10-11
  • Wvs Lecce3-02026-09-20
  • Dat Lazio2-22026-09-12
  • Dat Juventus1-12026-09-06

Inter Milan form

WWDWW
  • Wat Bologna3-12026-10-17
  • Wvs Parma3-02026-10-10
  • Dat Roma2-22026-09-19
  • Wvs Udinese5-32026-09-14
  • Wvs Napoli3-22026-09-05

Head to head

  • 2026-03-08AC Milan 1-0 Inter Milan
  • 2025-11-23Inter Milan 0-1 AC Milan
  • 2025-02-02AC Milan 1-1 Inter Milan
  • 2024-09-22Inter Milan 1-2 AC Milan
  • 2024-04-22AC Milan 1-2 Inter Milan

More Serie A predictions

All matches ›

Prediction last updated 2026-10-24 07:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.