AC Milan vs Bologna prediction

Italy · Serie A · 28 October 2026

AC Milan4th · 15 pts
Wed 28 Oct
Bologna15th · 5 pts
AC MilanDrawBologna
Our predictionAC Milan to winLean
53%Probability
1.90Fair odds
1-0Likely score
1.40-0.99Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • AC Milan53%1.90
  • Draw25%3.95
  • Bologna22%4.56

Double chance

  • AC Milan or draw78%1.28
  • AC Milan or Bologna75%1.34
  • Draw or Bologna47%2.12

Goals

  • Over 2.543%2.34
  • Under 2.557%1.75

Both teams to score

  • Yes47%2.12
  • No53%1.89

Match preview

AC Milan have the edge at 53%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 25% and a win for Bologna at 22%.

Expected goals from the model: AC Milan 1.40, Bologna 0.99. The single most likely score is 1-0 (13%), and the chance of three or more goals is 43%.

AC Milan have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 league matches (WDWDD).

Bologna have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (LWDLD).

In the table AC Milan are 4th with 15 points and Bologna 15th with 5.

In their last 5 league meetings AC Milan won 3, Bologna won 1 and 1 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-013%
  • 1-112%
  • 0-19%
  • 2-09%
  • 0-09%

AC Milan form

DDWDW
  • Wvs Atalanta3-22026-10-18
  • Dat Sassuolo1-12026-10-11
  • Wvs Lecce3-02026-09-20
  • Dat Lazio2-22026-09-12
  • Dat Juventus1-12026-09-06

Bologna form

DLDWL
  • Lvs Inter Milan1-32026-10-17
  • Wat Lecce2-12026-10-11
  • Dvs Torino1-12026-09-19
  • Lat Napoli0-12026-09-13
  • Dvs Sassuolo2-22026-09-06

Head to head

  • 2026-02-03Bologna 0-3 AC Milan
  • 2025-09-14AC Milan 1-0 Bologna
  • 2025-05-09AC Milan 3-1 Bologna
  • 2025-02-27Bologna 2-1 AC Milan
  • 2024-01-27AC Milan 2-2 Bologna

More Serie A predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.