Vitória Guimarães vs Porto prediction
Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Vitória Guimarães14%6.98
- Draw21%4.83
- Porto65%1.54
Double chance
- Vitória Guimarães or draw35%2.85
- Vitória Guimarães or Porto79%1.26
- Draw or Porto86%1.17
Goals
- Over 2.541%2.43
- Under 2.559%1.70
Both teams to score
- Yes43%2.31
- No57%1.76
Match in numbers
This season, Vitória Guimarães at home and Porto away
| Vitória Guimarães (home) | Porto (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| Points per game | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Shots on target per game | 5.8 | 5.2 |
| Shots on target conceded | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
- Porto have won their last 11 league matches.
- Vitória Guimarães: 13th in the table; the model rates their attack 6th and their defence 8th in the league.
- Porto: 1st in the table; the model rates their attack 3rd and their defence 1st in the league.
- Our predictions for Vitória Guimarães matches: 2 of 3 correct.
- Our predictions for Porto matches: 3 of 3 correct.
Match preview
The model makes Porto clear favourites at 65%. The draw is rated at 21% and a win for Vitória Guimarães at 14%.
At home this season Vitória Guimarães average 1.60 points and 1.4 goals per game, conceding 0.4. Away from home Porto take 3.00 points per game, scoring 2.4 and conceding 0.4. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, Vitória Guimarães manage 5.8 per home game and Porto 5.2 per away game.
Form lines: Porto have won their last 11 league matches.
Vitória Guimarães sit 13th in the table, but their underlying numbers rank 7th in the league, so the model rates them higher than their position suggests.
Expected goals from the model: Vitória Guimarães 0.82, Porto 1.51. The single most likely score is 0-1 (15%), and the chance of three or more goals is 41%.
In their last 5 league meetings Vitória Guimarães won 1, Porto won 3 and 1 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 0-115%
- 1-112%
- 0-211%
- 0-010%
- 1-29%
Vitória Guimarães form
- Dat Gil Vicente0-02026-11-02
- Wvs Marítimo5-02026-10-23
- Lat Benfica0-22026-10-11
- Dvs Moreirense1-12026-09-20
- Lat Académico de Viseu1-22026-09-12
Porto form
- Wvs Estoril4-02026-10-31
- Wat Gil Vicente1-02026-10-24
- Wat Marítimo2-12026-10-10
- Wvs Benfica3-12026-09-20
- Wat Casa Pia4-12026-09-12
Head to head
- 2026-01-18Vitória Guimarães 0-1 Porto
- 2025-08-11Porto 3-0 Vitória Guimarães
- 2025-02-24Porto 1-1 Vitória Guimarães
- 2024-09-21Vitória Guimarães 0-3 Porto
- 2024-04-07Porto 1-2 Vitória Guimarães
Prediction made 2026-11-08 17:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.