Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Utrecht41%2.41
- Draw24%4.13
- NEC34%2.92
Double chance
- Utrecht or draw66%1.52
- Utrecht or NEC76%1.32
- Draw or NEC59%1.71
Goals
- Over 2.564%1.57
- Under 2.536%2.74
Both teams to score
- Yes65%1.55
- No35%2.83
Match in numbers
This season, Utrecht at home and NEC away
| Utrecht (home) | NEC (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded per game | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| Shots on target per game | 4.0 | 3.6 |
| Shots on target conceded | 7.4 | 3.6 |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 60% |
- NEC have gone 8 league matches without a win.
- Utrecht: 13th in the table; the model rates their attack 10th and their defence 11th in the league.
- NEC: 14th in the table; the model rates their attack 9th and their defence 6th in the league.
- Our predictions for Utrecht matches: 0 of 3 correct.
- Our predictions for NEC matches: 1 of 3 correct.
Match preview
An open game: no outcome reaches 45%. Utrecht 41%, draw 24%, NEC 34%.
At home this season Utrecht average 1.00 points and 1.8 goals per game, conceding 3.0. Away from home NEC take 1.40 points per game, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.4. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, Utrecht manage 4.0 per home game and NEC 3.6 per away game.
Form lines: NEC have gone 8 league matches without a win.
NEC sit 14th in the table, but their underlying numbers rank 6th in the league, so the model rates them higher than their position suggests.
Expected goals from the model: Utrecht 1.61, NEC 1.66. The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%), and the chance of three or more goals is 64%.
In their last 5 league meetings Utrecht won 4 and NEC won 1.
Most likely scores
- 1-110%
- 1-28%
- 2-18%
- 2-27%
- 0-16%
Utrecht form
- Lat Telstar2-42026-11-01
- Dvs PEC Zwolle1-12026-10-24
- Wat Twente2-12026-10-18
- Wvs Willem II3-12026-10-11
- Lat Feyenoord0-52026-09-20
NEC form
- Lat Heerenveen0-12026-10-31
- Dvs Groningen2-22026-10-25
- Dvs Fortuna Sittard2-22026-10-18
- Dat Ajax1-12026-10-10
- Dvs Go Ahead Eagles1-12026-09-20
Head to head
- 2026-02-11NEC 1-3 Utrecht
- 2025-11-02Utrecht 1-0 NEC
- 2025-03-15Utrecht 0-1 NEC
- 2024-11-24NEC 1-2 Utrecht
- 2024-03-17Utrecht 1-0 NEC
Prediction made 2026-11-08 18:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.