Updated 07:17 UTCTrack record

Union Berlin vs Köln prediction

Germany · Bundesliga · 01 November 2026

Union Berlin17th · 5 pts
Sun 01 Nov
Köln12th · 7 pts
Union BerlinDrawKöln
Our predictionUnion Berlin to winLean
47%Probability
2.15Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.60-1.33Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Union Berlin47%2.15
  • Draw25%3.96
  • Köln28%3.54

Double chance

  • Union Berlin or draw72%1.39
  • Union Berlin or Köln75%1.34
  • Draw or Köln53%1.87

Goals

  • Over 2.556%1.79
  • Under 2.544%2.27

Both teams to score

  • Yes58%1.71
  • No42%2.40

Match in numbers

This season, Union Berlin at home and Köln away

Union Berlin (home)Köln (away)
Matches43
Points per game1.250.00
Goals scored per game1.250.67
Goals conceded per game1.502.33
Shots on target per game6.04.3
Shots on target conceded4.27.3
Clean sheets50%0%
Over 2.5 goals50%67%
Both teams scored50%67%
  • Union Berlin: 17th in the table; the model rates their attack 16th and their defence 10th in the league.
  • Köln: 12th in the table; the model rates their attack 13th and their defence 14th in the league.

Match preview

Union Berlin have the edge at 47%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 25% and a win for Köln at 28%.

At home this season Union Berlin average 1.25 points and 1.2 goals per game, conceding 1.5. Away from home Köln take 0.00 points per game, scoring 0.7 and conceding 2.3. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, Union Berlin manage 6.0 per home game and Köln 4.3 per away game.

Expected goals from the model: Union Berlin 1.60, Köln 1.33. The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), and the chance of three or more goals is 56%.

In their last 5 league meetings Union Berlin won 2, Köln won 1 and 2 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-111%
  • 2-19%
  • 1-09%
  • 1-28%
  • 0-17%

Union Berlin form

LLLWD
  • Dvs Borussia Dortmund0-02026-10-17
  • Wvs Elversberg1-02026-10-10
  • Lat Bayern Munich0-72026-09-18
  • Lvs Schalke 041-32026-09-11
  • Lat Bayer Leverkusen0-42026-09-05

Köln form

LDLWL
  • Lat Eintracht Frankfurt0-12026-10-16
  • Wvs Borussia M'gladbach2-12026-10-11
  • Lat Hamburger SV1-22026-09-19
  • Dvs Werder Bremen1-12026-09-12
  • Lat Stuttgart1-42026-09-04

Head to head

  • 2026-05-02Union Berlin 2-2 Köln
  • 2025-12-20Köln 0-1 Union Berlin
  • 2024-05-11Köln 3-2 Union Berlin
  • 2023-12-20Union Berlin 2-0 Köln
  • 2023-03-04Union Berlin 0-0 Köln

More Bundesliga predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-24 07:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.