Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Twente48%2.09
- Draw25%3.99
- Ajax27%3.70
Double chance
- Twente or draw73%1.37
- Twente or Ajax75%1.33
- Draw or Ajax52%1.92
Goals
- Over 2.559%1.68
- Under 2.541%2.47
Both teams to score
- Yes60%1.66
- No40%2.51
Match in numbers
This season, Twente at home and Ajax away
| Twente (home) | Ajax (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| Points per game | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.00 | 3.60 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Shots on target per game | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| Shots on target conceded | 3.8 | 4.0 |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
- Twente have scored in 10 straight league matches.
- Ajax have won their last 3 league matches.
- Twente: 4th in the table; the model rates their attack 3rd and their defence 1st in the league.
- Ajax: 2nd in the table; the model rates their attack 4th and their defence 3rd in the league.
- Our predictions for Twente matches: 1 of 3 correct.
- Our predictions for Ajax matches: 2 of 3 correct.
Match preview
Twente have the edge at 48%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 25% and a win for Ajax at 27%.
At home this season Twente average 2.40 points and 2.0 goals per game, conceding 1.0. Away from home Ajax take 3.00 points per game, scoring 3.6 and conceding 0.8. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, Twente manage 8.0 per home game and Ajax 8.0 per away game.
Form lines: Twente have scored in 10 straight league matches; Ajax have won their last 3 league matches.
Expected goals from the model: Twente 1.80, Ajax 1.28. The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%), and the chance of three or more goals is 59%.
In their last 5 league meetings Twente won 1, Ajax won 3 and 1 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 1-110%
- 2-110%
- 1-08%
- 2-07%
- 1-27%
Twente form
- Wat Excelsior9-02026-11-01
- Wat AZ2-02026-10-25
- Lvs Utrecht1-22026-10-18
- Dat Fortuna Sittard1-12026-10-10
- Wvs PSV3-22026-09-20
Ajax form
- Wvs AZ1-02026-10-31
- Wat Sparta Rotterdam2-12026-10-25
- Wat Groningen5-22026-10-18
- Dvs NEC1-12026-10-10
- Dvs Excelsior2-22026-09-19
Head to head
- 2026-04-04Ajax 1-2 Twente
- 2025-10-26Twente 2-3 Ajax
- 2025-05-18Ajax 2-0 Twente
- 2024-11-10Twente 2-2 Ajax
- 2024-04-14Ajax 2-1 Twente
Prediction made 2026-11-08 13:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.