Toulouse vs Troyes prediction

France · Ligue 1 · 25 October 2026

Toulouse11th · 9 pts
Sun 25 Oct
Troyes17th · 4 pts
ToulouseDrawTroyes
Our predictionToulouse to winStrong pick
71%Probability
1.40Fair odds
1-0Likely score
1.91-0.83Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Toulouse71%1.40
  • Draw18%5.69
  • Troyes11%9.04

Double chance

  • Toulouse or draw89%1.12
  • Toulouse or Troyes82%1.21
  • Draw or Troyes29%3.49

Goals

  • Over 2.552%1.94
  • Under 2.548%2.06

Both teams to score

  • Yes48%2.09
  • No52%1.91

Match preview

The model makes Toulouse clear favourites, with a 71% chance of winning. A draw is rated at 18% and a win for Troyes at 11%.

Expected goals from the model: Toulouse 1.91, Troyes 0.83. The single most likely score is 1-0 (13%), and the chance of three or more goals is 52%.

Toulouse have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (WDWDL).

Troyes have won 0 and lost 5 of their last 5 league matches (LLLLL).

In the table Toulouse are 11th with 9 points and Troyes 17th with 4.

In their last 2 league meetings Toulouse won 2, Troyes won 0 and 0 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-013%
  • 2-012%
  • 1-110%
  • 2-110%
  • 3-07%

Toulouse form

LDWDW
  • Wat Le Mans3-02026-10-16
  • Dat Monaco2-22026-10-10
  • Wvs Le Havre3-22026-09-19
  • Dat Lorient2-22026-09-12
  • Lvs Lille0-12026-09-03

Troyes form

LLLLL
  • Lvs Lens1-32026-10-17
  • Lvs Marseille0-22026-10-11
  • Lat Angers SCO0-22026-09-19
  • Lat Lille0-22026-09-13
  • Lvs Strasbourg2-62026-09-06

Head to head

  • 2023-02-01Toulouse 4-1 Troyes
  • 2022-08-14Troyes 0-3 Toulouse

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.