Marseille vs Le Havre prediction

France · Ligue 1 · 25 October 2026

Marseille9th · 9 pts
Sun 25 Oct
Le Havre18th · 2 pts
MarseilleDrawLe Havre
Our predictionMarseille to winStrong pick
66%Probability
1.51Fair odds
1-0Likely score
1.98-0.98Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Marseille66%1.51
  • Draw19%5.16
  • Le Havre14%6.91

Double chance

  • Marseille or draw86%1.17
  • Marseille or Le Havre81%1.24
  • Draw or Le Havre34%2.95

Goals

  • Over 2.557%1.76
  • Under 2.543%2.31

Both teams to score

  • Yes54%1.86
  • No46%2.16

Match preview

The model makes Marseille clear favourites, with a 66% chance of winning. A draw is rated at 19% and a win for Le Havre at 14%.

Expected goals from the model: Marseille 1.98, Le Havre 0.98. The single most likely score is 1-0 (10%), and the chance of three or more goals is 57%.

Marseille have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (WWLLL).

Le Havre have won 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 league matches (LLLDL).

In the table Marseille are 9th with 9 points and Le Havre 18th with 2.

In their last 5 league meetings Marseille won 5, Le Havre won 0 and 0 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-010%
  • 2-010%
  • 2-110%
  • 1-110%
  • 3-07%

Marseille form

LLLWW
  • Wat Angers SCO5-22026-10-18
  • Wat Troyes2-02026-10-11
  • Lvs PSG1-22026-09-20
  • Lat Rennes0-12026-09-11
  • Lvs Paris FC2-32026-09-06

Le Havre form

LDLLL
  • Lvs Auxerre1-32026-10-18
  • Lat Lille0-12026-10-10
  • Lat Toulouse2-32026-09-19
  • Dvs Angers SCO0-02026-09-12
  • Lvs Brest1-22026-09-05

Head to head

  • 2026-05-10Le Havre 0-1 Marseille
  • 2025-10-18Marseille 6-2 Le Havre
  • 2025-05-10Le Havre 1-3 Marseille
  • 2025-01-05Marseille 5-1 Le Havre
  • 2024-05-19Le Havre 1-2 Marseille

More Ligue 1 predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.