Monaco vs Lille prediction

France · Ligue 1 · 25 October 2026

Monaco5th · 14 pts
Sun 25 Oct
Lille4th · 14 pts
MonacoDrawLille
Our predictionMonaco to winOpen game
43%Probability
2.35Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.38-1.15Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Monaco43%2.35
  • Draw28%3.57
  • Lille29%3.40

Double chance

  • Monaco or draw71%1.42
  • Monaco or Lille72%1.39
  • Draw or Lille57%1.74

Goals

  • Over 2.546%2.16
  • Under 2.554%1.86

Both teams to score

  • Yes51%1.97
  • No49%2.04

Match preview

An open game: no outcome reaches 45%. Monaco 43%, draw 28%, Lille 29%.

Expected goals from the model: Monaco 1.38, Lille 1.15. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), and the chance of three or more goals is 46%.

Monaco have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (LDWDW).

Lille have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (DWLWW).

In the table Monaco are 5th with 14 points and Lille 4th with 14.

In their last 5 league meetings Monaco won 1, Lille won 3 and 1 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-112%
  • 1-011%
  • 0-19%
  • 2-19%
  • 0-08%

Monaco form

WDWDL
  • Lat Lorient0-12026-10-18
  • Dvs Toulouse2-22026-10-10
  • Wvs Lens2-12026-09-18
  • Dat Strasbourg1-12026-09-12
  • Wat PSG2-12026-09-04

Lille form

WWLWD
  • Dvs Brest1-12026-10-17
  • Wvs Le Havre1-02026-10-10
  • Lat Nice1-22026-09-20
  • Wvs Troyes2-02026-09-13
  • Wat Toulouse1-02026-09-03

Head to head

  • 2026-05-10Monaco 0-1 Lille
  • 2025-08-24Lille 1-0 Monaco
  • 2025-02-22Lille 2-1 Monaco
  • 2024-10-18Monaco 0-0 Lille
  • 2024-04-24Monaco 1-0 Lille

More Ligue 1 predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.