Rochdale vs Grimsby Town prediction

England · League Two · 20 October 2026

Rochdale
2 - 2Full time
Grimsby Town
RochdaleDrawGrimsby Town
Prediction missedModel pick before kick-off: Grimsby Town to win (40%)
Our predictionGrimsby Town to winOpen game
40%Probability
2.51Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.27-1.41Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Rochdale34%2.93
  • Draw26%3.85
  • Grimsby Town40%2.51

Double chance

  • Rochdale or draw60%1.66
  • Rochdale or Grimsby Town74%1.35
  • Draw or Grimsby Town66%1.52

Goals

  • Over 2.550%1.99
  • Under 2.550%2.01

Both teams to score

  • Yes54%1.84
  • No46%2.18

Match preview

An open game: no outcome reaches 45%. Rochdale 34%, draw 26%, Grimsby Town 40%.

Expected goals from the model: Rochdale 1.27, Grimsby Town 1.41. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), and the chance of three or more goals is 50%.

Rochdale have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (LDWWW).

Grimsby Town have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 league matches (LLLLW).

In their last 2 league meetings Rochdale won 0, Grimsby Town won 2 and 0 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-112%
  • 0-110%
  • 1-09%
  • 1-29%
  • 2-18%

Rochdale form

WWWDL
  • Lat Crewe Alexandra2-32026-10-17
  • Dat Tranmere Rovers1-12026-10-10
  • Wvs Swindon Town1-02026-10-03
  • Wat Fleetwood Town2-12026-09-26
  • Wvs Oldham Athletic2-02026-09-19

Grimsby Town form

WLLLL
  • Lvs Northampton Town0-22026-10-17
  • Lat Port Vale0-12026-10-10
  • Lvs Shrewsbury Town1-22026-10-03
  • Lat Newport County1-22026-09-26
  • Wvs Crawley Town2-02026-09-19

Head to head

  • 2023-03-11Grimsby Town 1-0 Rochdale
  • 2022-08-13Rochdale 0-1 Grimsby Town

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Analysis

This match was played before FootyMath launched: the prediction was calculated afterwards from the matches before its date only, the same way as our backtest, and is not counted in the live track record. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.