Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano prediction
Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Real Sociedad46%2.17
- Draw25%4.07
- Rayo Vallecano29%3.42
Double chance
- Real Sociedad or draw71%1.41
- Real Sociedad or Rayo Vallecano75%1.33
- Draw or Rayo Vallecano54%1.86
Goals
- Over 2.562%1.62
- Under 2.538%2.61
Both teams to score
- Yes63%1.60
- No37%2.68
Match in numbers
This season, Real Sociedad at home and Rayo Vallecano away
| Real Sociedad (home) | Rayo Vallecano (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| Shots on target per game | 5.0 | 4.4 |
| Shots on target conceded | 3.8 | 6.2 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 100% |
- Real Sociedad: 5th in the table; the model rates their attack 7th and their defence 17th in the league.
- Rayo Vallecano: 14th in the table; the model rates their attack 8th and their defence 11th in the league.
- Our predictions for Real Sociedad matches: 3 of 3 correct.
- Our predictions for Rayo Vallecano matches: 2 of 3 correct.
Match preview
A slight lean towards Real Sociedad (46%), though Rayo Vallecano win 29% of the time in the model and the draw sits at 25%.
At home this season Real Sociedad average 2.00 points and 1.4 goals per game, conceding 1.4. Away from home Rayo Vallecano take 0.40 points per game, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.6. Shots on target, which drive our ratings, read 5.0 per game for Real Sociedad at home and 4.4 for Rayo Vallecano on the road.
Rayo Vallecano sit 14th in the table, but their underlying numbers rank 7th in the league, so the model rates them higher than their position suggests.
The model expects 1.77 goals from Real Sociedad and 1.42 from Rayo Vallecano; 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 10%, over 2.5 goals 62% and both teams to score 63%.
In their last 5 league meetings Rayo Vallecano won 2 and 3 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 1-110%
- 2-19%
- 1-08%
- 1-27%
- 2-26%
Real Sociedad form
- Lat Athletic Club1-22026-11-01
- Wvs Levante2-12026-10-25
- Wat Málaga5-22026-10-18
- Wvs Deportivo de La Coruña3-22026-10-11
- Wat Valencia3-22026-09-20
Rayo Vallecano form
- Wvs Celta Vigo3-02026-10-31
- Lvs Elche0-32026-10-24
- Dat Getafe1-12026-10-19
- Dat Osasuna1-12026-09-19
- Wvs Espanyol2-12026-09-15
Head to head
- 2026-04-26Rayo Vallecano 3-3 Real Sociedad
- 2025-10-05Real Sociedad 0-1 Rayo Vallecano
- 2025-03-16Rayo Vallecano 2-2 Real Sociedad
- 2024-08-18Real Sociedad 1-2 Rayo Vallecano
- 2024-01-27Real Sociedad 0-0 Rayo Vallecano
Prediction made 2026-11-08 14:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.