Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- PSV94%1.07
- Draw4%22.63
- Willem II2%56.66
Double chance
- PSV or draw98%1.02
- PSV or Willem II96%1.05
- Draw or Willem II6%16.17
Goals
- Over 2.582%1.22
- Under 2.518%5.55
Both teams to score
- Yes50%1.99
- No50%2.01
Match in numbers
This season, PSV at home and Willem II away
| PSV (home) | Willem II (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| Points per game | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.00 | 3.20 |
| Shots on target per game | 7.2 | 2.6 |
| Shots on target conceded | 6.0 | 8.2 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 100% |
- PSV have scored in 40 straight league matches.
- Willem II have lost their last 5 league matches.
- PSV: 3rd in the table; the model rates their attack 1st and their defence 4th in the league.
- Willem II: 18th in the table; the model rates their attack 18th and their defence 18th in the league.
- Our predictions for PSV matches: 2 of 3 correct.
- Our predictions for Willem II matches: 2 of 3 correct.
Match preview
PSV go in as strong favourites: 94% to win, against 4% for a draw and 2% for Willem II.
At home this season PSV average 2.20 points and 2.8 goals per game, conceding 1.0. Away from home Willem II take 0.20 points per game, scoring 1.2 and conceding 3.2. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, PSV manage 7.2 per home game and Willem II 2.6 per away game.
Form lines: PSV have scored in 40 straight league matches; Willem II have lost their last 5 league matches.
Expected goals from the model: PSV 3.74, Willem II 0.73. The single most likely score is 3-0 (10%), and the chance of three or more goals is 82%.
In their last 5 league meetings PSV won 3, Willem II won 1 and 1 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 3-010%
- 4-010%
- 2-08%
- 3-17%
- 5-07%
PSV form
- Dvs Feyenoord1-12026-10-25
- Lat ADO Den Haag1-22026-10-17
- Wvs Heerenveen2-02026-10-09
- Lat Twente2-32026-09-20
- Wvs Sparta Rotterdam4-12026-09-13
Willem II form
- Lvs Cambuur1-62026-10-24
- Lat Sparta Rotterdam2-32026-10-17
- Lat Utrecht1-32026-10-11
- Lvs Fortuna Sittard0-12026-09-19
- Lat Ajax1-52026-09-15
Head to head
- 2025-02-08PSV 1-1 Willem II
- 2024-09-28Willem II 0-2 PSV
- 2022-05-01PSV 4-2 Willem II
- 2021-09-25Willem II 2-1 PSV
- 2021-05-09Willem II 0-2 PSV
Prediction made 2026-10-31 17:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.