PSG vs Olympique Lyonnais prediction

France · Ligue 1 · 25 October 2026

PSG2nd · 14 pts
Sun 25 Oct
Olympique Lyonnais1st · 14 pts
PSGDrawOlympique Lyonnais
Our predictionPSG to winStrong pick
66%Probability
1.51Fair odds
2-0Likely score
2.16-0.98Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • PSG66%1.51
  • Draw20%5.09
  • Olympique Lyonnais14%7.05

Double chance

  • PSG or draw86%1.17
  • PSG or Olympique Lyonnais80%1.24
  • Draw or Olympique Lyonnais34%2.96

Goals

  • Over 2.561%1.65
  • Under 2.539%2.54

Both teams to score

  • Yes55%1.82
  • No45%2.22

Match preview

The model makes PSG clear favourites, with a 66% chance of winning. A draw is rated at 20% and a win for Olympique Lyonnais at 14%.

Expected goals from the model: PSG 2.16, Olympique Lyonnais 0.98. The single most likely score is 2-0 (10%), and the chance of three or more goals is 61%.

PSG have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (WWWWL).

Olympique Lyonnais have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (WLWDW).

In the table PSG are 2nd with 14 points and Olympique Lyonnais 1st with 14.

In their last 5 league meetings PSG won 4, Olympique Lyonnais won 1 and 0 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 2-010%
  • 2-110%
  • 1-010%
  • 1-19%
  • 3-07%

PSG form

LWWWW
  • Wat Strasbourg3-12026-10-17
  • Wvs Le Mans3-12026-10-10
  • Wat Marseille2-12026-09-20
  • Wat Brest1-02026-09-13
  • Lvs Monaco1-22026-09-04

Olympique Lyonnais form

WDWLW
  • Wvs Nice2-12026-10-18
  • Lat Lens1-22026-10-09
  • Wvs Rennes4-02026-09-19
  • Dat Paris FC0-02026-09-12
  • Wvs Auxerre3-12026-09-04

Head to head

  • 2026-04-19PSG 1-2 Olympique Lyonnais
  • 2025-11-09Olympique Lyonnais 2-3 PSG
  • 2025-02-23Olympique Lyonnais 2-3 PSG
  • 2024-12-15PSG 3-1 Olympique Lyonnais
  • 2024-04-21PSG 4-1 Olympique Lyonnais

More Ligue 1 predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.