Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Porto82%1.21
- Draw11%8.86
- Estoril6%15.89
Double chance
- Porto or draw94%1.07
- Porto or Estoril89%1.13
- Draw or Estoril18%5.69
Goals
- Over 2.554%1.84
- Under 2.546%2.18
Both teams to score
- Yes47%2.13
- No53%1.88
Match in numbers
This season, Porto at home and Estoril away
| Porto (home) | Estoril (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.25 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.75 |
| Shots on target per game | 7.2 | 4.2 |
| Shots on target conceded | 2.8 | 6.0 |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
- Porto have won their last 10 league matches.
- Estoril have lost their last 4 league matches.
- Porto: 1st in the table; the model rates their attack 3rd and their defence 1st in the league.
- Estoril: 18th in the table; the model rates their attack 5th and their defence 15th in the league.
- Our predictions for Porto matches: 3 of 3 correct.
Match preview
Porto go in as strong favourites: 82% to win, against 11% for a draw and 6% for Estoril.
At home this season Porto average 3.00 points and 2.2 goals per game, conceding 0.5. Away from home Estoril take 0.00 points per game, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.8. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, Porto manage 7.2 per home game and Estoril 4.2 per away game.
Form lines: Porto have won their last 10 league matches; Estoril have lost their last 4 league matches.
Estoril sit 18th in the table, but their underlying numbers rank 11th in the league, so the model rates them higher than their position suggests.
Expected goals from the model: Porto 2.08, Estoril 0.77. The single most likely score is 2-0 (12%), and the chance of three or more goals is 54%.
In their last 5 league meetings Porto won 4 and Estoril won 1.
Most likely scores
- 2-012%
- 1-012%
- 2-110%
- 1-19%
- 3-09%
Porto form
- Wat Gil Vicente1-02026-10-24
- Wat Marítimo2-12026-10-10
- Wvs Benfica3-12026-09-20
- Wat Casa Pia4-12026-09-12
- Wvs Moreirense2-12026-09-04
Estoril form
- Lvs Moreirense1-32026-10-25
- Lat Académico de Viseu1-22026-10-10
- Lvs Casa Pia1-22026-09-20
- Lat Sporting Braga0-12026-09-14
- Dvs Arouca0-02026-09-07
Head to head
- 2026-04-12Estoril 1-3 Porto
- 2025-11-30Porto 1-0 Estoril
- 2025-03-30Estoril 1-2 Porto
- 2024-11-03Porto 4-0 Estoril
- 2024-03-30Estoril 1-0 Porto
Prediction made 2026-10-31 20:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.