Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Napoli47%2.14
- Draw28%3.61
- Lazio26%3.91
Double chance
- Napoli or draw74%1.34
- Napoli or Lazio72%1.38
- Draw or Lazio53%1.88
Goals
- Over 2.547%2.11
- Under 2.553%1.90
Both teams to score
- Yes50%1.99
- No50%2.01
Match in numbers
This season, Napoli at home and Lazio away
| Napoli (home) | Lazio (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 5 |
| Points per game | 1.75 | 3.00 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.25 | 0.60 |
| Shots on target per game | 5.5 | 4.4 |
| Shots on target conceded | 3.2 | 4.0 |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
- Lazio have won their last 6 league matches.
- Napoli: 10th in the table; the model rates their attack 6th and their defence 3rd in the league.
- Lazio: 1st in the table; the model rates their attack 9th and their defence 7th in the league.
- Our predictions for Napoli matches: 2 of 4 correct.
- Our predictions for Lazio matches: 3 of 4 correct.
Match preview
A slight lean towards Napoli (47%), though Lazio win 26% of the time in the model and the draw sits at 28%.
At home this season Napoli average 1.75 points and 2.0 goals per game, conceding 1.2. Away from home Lazio take 3.00 points per game, scoring 2.8 and conceding 0.6. Shots on target, which drive our ratings, read 5.5 per game for Napoli at home and 4.4 for Lazio on the road.
Current runs: Lazio have won their last 6 league matches.
Napoli sit 10th in the table, but their underlying numbers rank 5th in the league, so the model rates them higher than their position suggests.
Lazio are 1st in the table while the model ranks them only 8th on performance, so it expects them to drift back.
The model expects 1.54 goals from Napoli and 1.03 from Lazio; 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 12%, over 2.5 goals 47% and both teams to score 50%.
In their last 5 league meetings Napoli won 1, Lazio won 2 and 2 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 1-012%
- 1-112%
- 2-19%
- 2-09%
- 0-18%
Napoli form
- Lat Juventus0-22026-11-01
- Wat Monza4-12026-10-28
- Dvs Roma3-32026-10-24
- Lat Venezia0-12026-10-17
- Wvs Frosinone3-02026-10-10
Lazio form
- Wvs Cagliari2-12026-11-01
- Wat Sassuolo6-22026-10-27
- Wvs Parma2-12026-10-24
- Wat Juventus3-02026-10-18
- Wvs Monza3-12026-10-11
Head to head
- 2026-04-18Napoli 0-2 Lazio
- 2026-01-04Lazio 0-2 Napoli
- 2025-02-15Lazio 2-2 Napoli
- 2024-12-08Napoli 0-1 Lazio
- 2024-01-28Lazio 0-0 Napoli
Prediction made 2026-11-08 11:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.