Motherwell vs St. Mirren prediction
Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Motherwell56%1.80
- Draw24%4.11
- St. Mirren20%5.00
Double chance
- Motherwell or draw80%1.25
- Motherwell or St. Mirren76%1.32
- Draw or St. Mirren44%2.26
Goals
- Over 2.550%1.99
- Under 2.550%2.01
Both teams to score
- Yes51%1.95
- No49%2.06
Match in numbers
This season, Motherwell at home and St. Mirren away
| Motherwell (home) | St. Mirren (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| Points per game | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored per game | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Shots on target per game | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| Shots on target conceded | 5.2 | 4.2 |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 20% |
- Motherwell have gone 7 league matches without a win.
- Motherwell: 10th in the table; the model rates their attack 5th and their defence 5th in the league.
- St. Mirren: 7th in the table; the model rates their attack 11th and their defence 6th in the league.
- Our predictions for Motherwell matches: 2 of 4 correct.
- Our predictions for St. Mirren matches: 3 of 4 correct.
Match preview
Motherwell have the edge at 56%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 24% and a win for St. Mirren at 20%.
At home this season Motherwell average 0.80 points and 0.6 goals per game, conceding 1.6. Away from home St. Mirren take 1.20 points per game, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.8. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, Motherwell manage 3.8 per home game and St. Mirren 3.8 per away game.
Form lines: Motherwell have gone 7 league matches without a win.
Motherwell sit 10th in the table, but their underlying numbers rank 4th in the league, so the model rates them higher than their position suggests.
Expected goals from the model: Motherwell 1.68, St. Mirren 1.00. The single most likely score is 1-0 (12%), and the chance of three or more goals is 50%.
In their last 5 league meetings Motherwell won 2 and 3 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 1-012%
- 1-111%
- 2-110%
- 2-010%
- 0-17%
Motherwell form
- Dat St. Johnstone2-22026-10-28
- Lvs Hearts0-22026-10-25
- Lat Kilmarnock2-32026-10-17
- Lvs Celtic0-22026-10-11
- Lat Dundee1-22026-09-19
St. Mirren form
- Dvs Hibernian1-12026-10-28
- Wvs Dundee2-12026-10-24
- Lat Aberdeen1-32026-10-17
- Lat Hearts0-52026-10-10
- Lvs Dundee United0-32026-09-19
Head to head
- 2026-08-30St. Mirren 3-3 Motherwell
- 2026-02-21St. Mirren 0-5 Motherwell
- 2026-01-03Motherwell 2-0 St. Mirren
- 2025-08-09St. Mirren 0-0 Motherwell
- 2025-03-15Motherwell 2-2 St. Mirren
Prediction made 2026-10-31 14:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.