Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Monza28%3.52
- Draw21%4.67
- Atalanta50%1.99
Double chance
- Monza or draw50%2.01
- Monza or Atalanta79%1.27
- Draw or Atalanta72%1.40
Goals
- Over 2.570%1.43
- Under 2.530%3.31
Both teams to score
- Yes69%1.44
- No31%3.25
Match in numbers
This season, Monza at home and Atalanta away
| Monza (home) | Atalanta (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 0.25 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.25 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.25 |
| Shots on target per game | 5.8 | 3.2 |
| Shots on target conceded | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 75% |
- Monza have lost their last 3 league matches.
- Monza: 18th in the table; the model rates their attack 11th and their defence 20th in the league.
- Atalanta: 13th in the table; the model rates their attack 8th and their defence 9th in the league.
- Our predictions for Monza matches: 4 of 4 correct.
- Our predictions for Atalanta matches: 1 of 4 correct.
Match preview
Atalanta have the edge at 50%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 21% and a win for Monza at 28%.
At home this season Monza average 1.50 points and 2.2 goals per game, conceding 2.0. Away from home Atalanta take 0.25 points per game, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.2. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, Monza manage 5.8 per home game and Atalanta 3.2 per away game.
Form lines: Monza have lost their last 3 league matches.
Expected goals from the model: Monza 1.66, Atalanta 1.95. The single most likely score is 1-1 (9%), and the chance of three or more goals is 70%.
Atalanta won all 5 of the last league meetings between the two.
Most likely scores
- 1-19%
- 1-29%
- 2-17%
- 2-27%
- 1-36%
Monza form
- Lat Bologna1-22026-10-31
- Lvs Napoli1-42026-10-28
- Lat Torino2-32026-10-23
- Wvs Cagliari4-02026-10-19
- Lat Lazio1-32026-10-11
Atalanta form
- Lvs Parma0-32026-11-02
- Dat Fiorentina2-22026-10-29
- Dvs Frosinone4-42026-10-25
- Lat AC Milan2-32026-10-18
- Wvs Venezia3-12026-10-12
Head to head
- 2025-05-04Monza 0-4 Atalanta
- 2024-10-30Atalanta 2-0 Monza
- 2024-04-21Monza 1-2 Atalanta
- 2023-09-02Atalanta 3-0 Monza
- 2023-06-04Atalanta 5-2 Monza
Prediction made 2026-11-08 13:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.