Marseille vs Toulouse prediction

Match preview

Marseille have the edge at 52%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 24% and a win for Toulouse at 24%.

At home this season Marseille average 1.00 points and 2.3 goals per game, conceding 1.7. Away from home Toulouse take 1.50 points per game, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.5. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, Marseille manage 6.5 per home game and Toulouse 3.8 per away game.

Marseille sit 10th in the table, but their underlying numbers rank 5th in the league, so the model rates them higher than their position suggests.

Expected goals from the model: Marseille 1.87, Toulouse 1.26. The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%), and the chance of three or more goals is 60%.

In their last 5 league meetings Marseille won 3 and 2 ended level.

Most likely scores

• 1-110%
• 2-110%
• 1-08%
• 2-08%
• 1-27%

Marseille form

• Wat Angers SCO5-22026-10-18
• Wat Troyes2-02026-10-11
• Lvs PSG1-22026-09-20
• Lat Rennes0-12026-09-11
• Lvs Paris FC2-32026-09-06

Toulouse form

• Wat Le Mans3-02026-10-16
• Dat Monaco2-22026-10-10
• Wvs Le Havre3-22026-09-19
• Dat Lorient2-22026-09-12
• Lvs Lille0-12026-09-03