Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich prediction
Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Mainz 0513%7.47
- Draw14%7.05
- Bayern Munich72%1.38
Double chance
- Mainz 05 or draw28%3.63
- Mainz 05 or Bayern Munich86%1.17
- Draw or Bayern Munich87%1.15
Goals
- Over 2.576%1.32
- Under 2.524%4.12
Both teams to score
- Yes68%1.48
- No32%3.09
Match in numbers
This season, Mainz 05 at home and Bayern Munich away
| Mainz 05 (home) | Bayern Munich (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Points per game | 0.25 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.50 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Shots on target per game | 5.5 | 7.5 |
| Shots on target conceded | 5.0 | 2.8 |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 75% |
- Mainz 05 have scored in 7 straight league matches.
- Bayern Munich are unbeaten in 23 league matches.
- Mainz 05: 10th in the table; the model rates their attack 11th and their defence 13th in the league.
- Bayern Munich: 1st in the table; the model rates their attack 1st and their defence 1st in the league.
- Our predictions for Mainz 05 matches: 2 of 3 correct.
- Our predictions for Bayern Munich matches: 2 of 3 correct.
Match preview
The model makes Bayern Munich clear favourites at 72%. The draw is rated at 14% and a win for Mainz 05 at 13%.
At home this season Mainz 05 average 0.25 points and 1.5 goals per game, conceding 2.5. Away from home Bayern Munich take 2.00 points per game, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.0. Shots on target, which drive our ratings, read 5.5 per game for Mainz 05 at home and 7.5 for Bayern Munich on the road.
Current runs: Mainz 05 have scored in 7 straight league matches; Bayern Munich are unbeaten in 23 league matches.
The model expects 1.30 goals from Mainz 05 and 2.67 from Bayern Munich; 1-2 is the most likely scoreline at 9%, over 2.5 goals 76% and both teams to score 68%.
In their last 5 league meetings Mainz 05 won 1, Bayern Munich won 3 and 1 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 1-29%
- 1-38%
- 0-27%
- 1-16%
- 0-36%
Mainz 05 form
- Lat Elversberg1-42026-10-30
- Lvs Werder Bremen2-32026-10-24
- Wat Schalke 041-02026-10-17
- Lvs Bayer Leverkusen3-42026-10-10
- Wat Borussia M'gladbach4-32026-09-19
Bayern Munich form
- Dvs Borussia Dortmund2-22026-10-31
- Wat Freiburg3-12026-10-25
- Wvs RB Leipzig6-12026-10-17
- Dat Augsburg2-22026-10-10
- Wvs Union Berlin7-02026-09-18
Head to head
- 2026-04-25Mainz 05 3-4 Bayern Munich
- 2025-12-14Bayern Munich 2-2 Mainz 05
- 2025-04-26Bayern Munich 3-0 Mainz 05
- 2024-12-14Mainz 05 2-1 Bayern Munich
- 2024-03-09Bayern Munich 8-1 Mainz 05
Prediction made 2026-11-07 14:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.