Lille vs Lens prediction

France · Ligue 1 · 30 October 2026

Lille4th · 14 pts
Fri 30 Oct
Lens8th · 10 pts
LilleDrawLens
Our predictionLille to winLean
46%Probability
2.20Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.49-1.18Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Lille46%2.20
  • Draw27%3.73
  • Lens28%3.61

Double chance

  • Lille or draw72%1.38
  • Lille or Lens73%1.37
  • Draw or Lens54%1.84

Goals

  • Over 2.550%2.00
  • Under 2.550%2.00

Both teams to score

  • Yes53%1.87
  • No47%2.15

Match preview

Lille have the edge at 46%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 27% and a win for Lens at 28%.

Expected goals from the model: Lille 1.49, Lens 1.18. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), and the chance of three or more goals is 50%.

Lille have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (DWLWW).

Lens have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (WWLDL).

In the table Lille are 4th with 14 points and Lens 8th with 10.

In their last 5 league meetings Lille won 4, Lens won 1 and 0 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-112%
  • 1-011%
  • 2-19%
  • 0-18%
  • 2-08%

Lille form

WWLWD
  • Dvs Brest1-12026-10-17
  • Wvs Le Havre1-02026-10-10
  • Lat Nice1-22026-09-20
  • Wvs Troyes2-02026-09-13
  • Wat Toulouse1-02026-09-03

Lens form

LDLWW
  • Wat Troyes3-12026-10-17
  • Wvs Olympique Lyonnais2-12026-10-09
  • Lat Monaco1-22026-09-18
  • Dat Le Mans2-22026-09-13
  • Lvs Lorient0-12026-09-05

Head to head

  • 2026-04-04Lille 3-0 Lens
  • 2025-09-20Lens 3-0 Lille
  • 2025-03-30Lille 1-0 Lens
  • 2024-10-26Lens 0-2 Lille
  • 2024-03-29Lille 2-1 Lens

More Ligue 1 predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.