Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Lens49%2.02
- Draw23%4.31
- Marseille27%3.66
Double chance
- Lens or draw73%1.38
- Lens or Marseille77%1.30
- Draw or Marseille51%1.98
Goals
- Over 2.566%1.52
- Under 2.534%2.91
Both teams to score
- Yes65%1.53
- No35%2.88
Match in numbers
This season, Lens at home and Marseille away
| Lens (home) | Marseille (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Points per game | 2.25 | 1.50 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.25 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Shots on target per game | 6.2 | 4.2 |
| Shots on target conceded | 3.2 | 4.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 25% |
- Marseille have won their last 4 league matches.
- Lens: 11th in the table; the model rates their attack 4th and their defence 9th in the league.
- Marseille: 8th in the table; the model rates their attack 3rd and their defence 11th in the league.
- Our predictions for Lens matches: 2 of 3 correct.
- Our predictions for Marseille matches: 2 of 3 correct.
Match preview
A slight lean towards Lens (49%), though Marseille win 27% of the time in the model and the draw sits at 23%.
At home this season Lens average 2.25 points and 2.2 goals per game, conceding 1.2. Away from home Marseille take 1.50 points per game, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.2. Shots on target, which drive our ratings, read 6.2 per game for Lens at home and 4.2 for Marseille on the road.
Current runs: Marseille have won their last 4 league matches.
Lens sit 11th in the table, but their underlying numbers rank 4th in the league, so the model rates them higher than their position suggests.
Marseille sit 8th in the table, but their underlying numbers rank 3rd in the league, so the model rates them higher than their position suggests.
The model expects 1.92 goals from Lens and 1.46 from Marseille; 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 9%, over 2.5 goals 66% and both teams to score 65%.
In their last 5 league meetings Lens won 2 and Marseille won 3.
Most likely scores
- 1-19%
- 2-19%
- 1-27%
- 1-07%
- 2-27%
Lens form
- Lat Lille0-12026-10-30
- Wvs Paris FC2-12026-10-24
- Wat Troyes3-12026-10-17
- Wvs Olympique Lyonnais2-12026-10-09
- Lat Monaco1-22026-09-18
Marseille form
- Wvs Toulouse2-02026-11-01
- Wvs Le Havre4-32026-10-25
- Wat Angers SCO5-22026-10-18
- Wat Troyes2-02026-10-11
- Lvs PSG1-22026-09-20
Head to head
- 2026-01-24Marseille 3-1 Lens
- 2025-10-25Lens 2-1 Marseille
- 2025-03-08Marseille 0-1 Lens
- 2024-11-23Lens 1-3 Marseille
- 2024-04-28Marseille 2-1 Lens
Prediction made 2026-11-08 19:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.