Falkirk vs Kilmarnock prediction

Scotland · Scottish Premiership · 24 October 2026

Falkirk9th · 9 pts
Sat 24 Oct
Kilmarnock11th · 8 pts
FalkirkDrawKilmarnock
Our predictionFalkirk to winLean
47%Probability
2.11Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.62-1.24Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Falkirk47%2.11
  • Draw26%3.91
  • Kilmarnock27%3.71

Double chance

  • Falkirk or draw73%1.37
  • Falkirk or Kilmarnock74%1.34
  • Draw or Kilmarnock53%1.90

Goals

  • Over 2.555%1.83
  • Under 2.545%2.20

Both teams to score

  • Yes57%1.76
  • No43%2.32

Match preview

Falkirk have the edge at 47%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 26% and a win for Kilmarnock at 27%.

Expected goals from the model: Falkirk 1.62, Kilmarnock 1.24. The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), and the chance of three or more goals is 55%.

Falkirk have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (WLDWD).

Kilmarnock have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (WLDWD).

In the table Falkirk are 9th with 9 points and Kilmarnock 11th with 8.

In their last 3 league meetings Falkirk won 3, Kilmarnock won 0 and 0 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-111%
  • 1-09%
  • 2-19%
  • 2-07%
  • 0-17%

Falkirk form

DWDLW
  • Wat Hibernian2-12026-10-17
  • Lvs Dundee1-22026-10-10
  • Dat St. Johnstone1-12026-09-19
  • Wvs Hearts2-12026-09-15
  • Dat Dundee United1-12026-09-05

Kilmarnock form

DWDLW
  • Wvs Motherwell3-22026-10-17
  • Lat Rangers1-32026-10-10
  • Dvs Hearts1-12026-09-19
  • Wat Hibernian1-02026-09-15
  • Dat Aberdeen0-02026-09-05

Head to head

  • 2026-02-28Falkirk 5-1 Kilmarnock
  • 2025-12-20Kilmarnock 0-1 Falkirk
  • 2025-11-01Falkirk 3-1 Kilmarnock

More Scottish Premiership predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.