Birmingham City vs Swansea City prediction
Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Birmingham City55%1.83
- Draw25%3.97
- Swansea City20%4.99
Double chance
- Birmingham City or draw80%1.25
- Birmingham City or Swansea City75%1.34
- Draw or Swansea City45%2.21
Goals
- Over 2.550%2.01
- Under 2.550%1.99
Both teams to score
- Yes50%1.99
- No50%2.01
Match in numbers
This season, Birmingham City at home and Swansea City away
| Birmingham City (home) | Swansea City (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 7 | 7 |
| Points per game | 1.86 | 1.71 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.43 | 1.43 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.86 |
| Shots on target per game | 5.4 | 4.3 |
| Shots on target conceded | 3.4 | 3.2 |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% | 86% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 57% |
- Birmingham City: 4th in the table; the model rates their attack 7th and their defence 4th in the league.
- Swansea City: 6th in the table; the model rates their attack 13th and their defence 15th in the league.
- Our predictions for Birmingham City matches: 3 of 4 correct.
- Our predictions for Swansea City matches: 4 of 4 correct.
Match preview
Birmingham City have the edge at 55%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 25% and a win for Swansea City at 20%.
At home this season Birmingham City average 1.86 points and 2.4 goals per game, conceding 1.0. Away from home Swansea City take 1.71 points per game, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.9. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, Birmingham City manage 5.4 per home game and Swansea City 4.3 per away game.
Swansea City are 6th in the table while the model ranks them only 12th on performance, so it expects them to drift back.
Expected goals from the model: Birmingham City 1.69, Swansea City 0.97. The single most likely score is 1-0 (12%), and the chance of three or more goals is 50%.
In their last 5 league meetings Birmingham City won 2 and 3 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 1-012%
- 1-111%
- 2-010%
- 2-110%
- 0-17%
Birmingham City form
- Wvs Millwall3-02026-11-03
- Wat Lincoln City3-12026-10-31
- Lat Cardiff City0-12026-10-24
- Wvs Queens Park Rangers3-02026-10-17
- Wvs Preston North End4-02026-10-13
Swansea City form
- Lat Portsmouth1-32026-11-03
- Wvs Blackburn Rovers4-02026-10-31
- Lat Queens Park Rangers0-52026-10-24
- Lvs West Ham United0-12026-10-17
- Wat Millwall1-02026-10-13
Head to head
- 2026-01-17Swansea City 1-1 Birmingham City
- 2025-09-20Birmingham City 1-0 Swansea City
- 2024-01-13Birmingham City 2-2 Swansea City
- 2023-08-05Swansea City 1-1 Birmingham City
- 2023-02-04Swansea City 3-4 Birmingham City
Prediction made 2026-11-07 14:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.