Barcelona vs Real Madrid prediction
Real Madrid3rd · 21 ptsBetting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Barcelona60%1.67
- Draw20%4.99
- Real Madrid20%4.95
Double chance
- Barcelona or draw80%1.25
- Barcelona or Real Madrid80%1.25
- Draw or Real Madrid40%2.48
Goals
- Over 2.569%1.46
- Under 2.531%3.18
Both teams to score
- Yes65%1.53
- No35%2.87
Match preview
Barcelona have the edge at 60%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 20% and a win for Real Madrid at 20%.
Expected goals from the model: Barcelona 2.21, Real Madrid 1.32. The single most likely score is 2-1 (9%), and the chance of three or more goals is 69%.
Barcelona have won 5 and lost 0 of their last 5 league matches (WWWWW).
Real Madrid have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (WWLWW).
In the table Barcelona are 1st with 27 points and Real Madrid 3rd with 21.
In their last 5 league meetings Barcelona won 3, Real Madrid won 2 and 0 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 2-19%
- 1-18%
- 2-07%
- 3-17%
- 1-07%
Barcelona form
- Wat Real Betis5-22026-10-17
- Wvs Getafe3-02026-10-10
- Wat Sevilla3-12026-09-19
- Wvs Racing de Santander7-22026-09-16
- Wat Levante4-22026-09-13
Real Madrid form
- Wvs Sevilla4-12026-10-18
- Wvs Villarreal1-02026-10-10
- Lat Atletico Madrid1-22026-09-20
- Wat Elche3-22026-09-15
- Wvs Rayo Vallecano4-12026-09-12
Head to head
- 2026-05-10Barcelona 2-0 Real Madrid
- 2025-10-26Real Madrid 2-1 Barcelona
- 2025-05-11Barcelona 4-3 Real Madrid
- 2024-10-26Real Madrid 0-4 Barcelona
- 2024-04-21Real Madrid 3-2 Barcelona
More La Liga predictions
All matches ›Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.