Barcelona vs Real Madrid prediction

Spain · La Liga · 25 October 2026

Barcelona1st · 27 pts
Sun 25 Oct
Real Madrid3rd · 21 pts
BarcelonaDrawReal Madrid
Our predictionBarcelona to winLean
60%Probability
1.67Fair odds
2-1Likely score
2.21-1.32Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Barcelona60%1.67
  • Draw20%4.99
  • Real Madrid20%4.95

Double chance

  • Barcelona or draw80%1.25
  • Barcelona or Real Madrid80%1.25
  • Draw or Real Madrid40%2.48

Goals

  • Over 2.569%1.46
  • Under 2.531%3.18

Both teams to score

  • Yes65%1.53
  • No35%2.87

Match preview

Barcelona have the edge at 60%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 20% and a win for Real Madrid at 20%.

Expected goals from the model: Barcelona 2.21, Real Madrid 1.32. The single most likely score is 2-1 (9%), and the chance of three or more goals is 69%.

Barcelona have won 5 and lost 0 of their last 5 league matches (WWWWW).

Real Madrid have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (WWLWW).

In the table Barcelona are 1st with 27 points and Real Madrid 3rd with 21.

In their last 5 league meetings Barcelona won 3, Real Madrid won 2 and 0 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 2-19%
  • 1-18%
  • 2-07%
  • 3-17%
  • 1-07%

Barcelona form

WWWWW
  • Wat Real Betis5-22026-10-17
  • Wvs Getafe3-02026-10-10
  • Wat Sevilla3-12026-09-19
  • Wvs Racing de Santander7-22026-09-16
  • Wat Levante4-22026-09-13

Real Madrid form

WWLWW
  • Wvs Sevilla4-12026-10-18
  • Wvs Villarreal1-02026-10-10
  • Lat Atletico Madrid1-22026-09-20
  • Wat Elche3-22026-09-15
  • Wvs Rayo Vallecano4-12026-09-12

Head to head

  • 2026-05-10Barcelona 2-0 Real Madrid
  • 2025-10-26Real Madrid 2-1 Barcelona
  • 2025-05-11Barcelona 4-3 Real Madrid
  • 2024-10-26Real Madrid 0-4 Barcelona
  • 2024-04-21Real Madrid 3-2 Barcelona

More La Liga predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.