Alavés vs Málaga prediction
Fri 23 Oct
Málaga20th · 4 ptsAlavésDrawMálaga
Our predictionAlavés to winStrong pick
65%Probability
1.53Fair odds
1-0Likely score
2.01-0.74Expected goals
Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Alavés65%1.53
- Draw22%4.48
- Málaga12%8.12
Double chance
- Alavés or draw88%1.14
- Alavés or Málaga78%1.29
- Draw or Málaga35%2.89
Goals
- Over 2.552%1.92
- Under 2.548%2.08
Both teams to score
- Yes45%2.21
- No55%1.82
Match preview
The model makes Alavés clear favourites, with a 65% chance of winning. A draw is rated at 22% and a win for Málaga at 12%.
Expected goals from the model: Alavés 2.01, Málaga 0.74. The single most likely score is 1-0 (13%), and the chance of three or more goals is 52%.
Alavés have won 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 league matches (LLDLL).
Málaga have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (LDLLD).
In the table Alavés are 7th with 11 points and Málaga 20th with 4.
Most likely scores
- 1-013%
- 2-013%
- 2-110%
- 1-19%
- 3-09%
Alavés form
LLDLL
- Lat Celta Vigo1-22026-10-18
- Lvs Atletico Madrid1-22026-10-10
- Dat Athletic Club0-02026-09-19
- Lvs Valencia0-12026-09-15
- Lat Racing de Santander1-22026-09-12
Málaga form
DLLDL
- Lvs Real Sociedad2-52026-10-18
- Dvs Espanyol1-12026-10-09
- Lat Getafe0-12026-09-20
- Lvs Villarreal1-32026-09-17
- Dat Celta Vigo1-12026-09-13
Head to head
- No meetings in our data since 2020.
More La Liga predictions
All matches ›Rayo VallecanoMatch result
56%
1.80Fair odds
Analysis
Racing de SantanderMatch result
47%
2.13Fair odds
Analysis
VillarrealMatch result
42%
2.37Fair odds
Analysis
Atletico MadridMatch result
69%
1.45Fair odds
Analysis
Athletic ClubMatch result
53%
1.90Fair odds
Analysis
Celta VigoMatch result
38%
2.63Fair odds
Analysis
Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.