Alavés vs Málaga prediction

Spain · La Liga · 23 October 2026

Alavés7th · 11 pts
Fri 23 Oct
Málaga20th · 4 pts
AlavésDrawMálaga
Our predictionAlavés to winStrong pick
65%Probability
1.53Fair odds
1-0Likely score
2.01-0.74Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Alavés65%1.53
  • Draw22%4.48
  • Málaga12%8.12

Double chance

  • Alavés or draw88%1.14
  • Alavés or Málaga78%1.29
  • Draw or Málaga35%2.89

Goals

  • Over 2.552%1.92
  • Under 2.548%2.08

Both teams to score

  • Yes45%2.21
  • No55%1.82

Match preview

The model makes Alavés clear favourites, with a 65% chance of winning. A draw is rated at 22% and a win for Málaga at 12%.

Expected goals from the model: Alavés 2.01, Málaga 0.74. The single most likely score is 1-0 (13%), and the chance of three or more goals is 52%.

Alavés have won 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 league matches (LLDLL).

Málaga have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (LDLLD).

In the table Alavés are 7th with 11 points and Málaga 20th with 4.

Most likely scores

  • 1-013%
  • 2-013%
  • 2-110%
  • 1-19%
  • 3-09%

Alavés form

LLDLL
  • Lat Celta Vigo1-22026-10-18
  • Lvs Atletico Madrid1-22026-10-10
  • Dat Athletic Club0-02026-09-19
  • Lvs Valencia0-12026-09-15
  • Lat Racing de Santander1-22026-09-12

Málaga form

DLLDL
  • Lvs Real Sociedad2-52026-10-18
  • Dvs Espanyol1-12026-10-09
  • Lat Getafe0-12026-09-20
  • Lvs Villarreal1-32026-09-17
  • Dat Celta Vigo1-12026-09-13

Head to head

  • No meetings in our data since 2020.

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.