Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- AZ57%1.76
- Draw22%4.48
- Groningen21%4.81
Double chance
- AZ or draw79%1.26
- AZ or Groningen78%1.29
- Draw or Groningen43%2.32
Goals
- Over 2.560%1.67
- Under 2.540%2.49
Both teams to score
- Yes59%1.70
- No41%2.44
Match in numbers
This season, AZ at home and Groningen away
| AZ (home) | Groningen (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Shots on target per game | 6.0 | 6.4 |
| Shots on target conceded | 2.4 | 6.6 |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 100% |
- Groningen have scored in 11 straight league matches.
- AZ: 6th in the table; the model rates their attack 5th and their defence 2nd in the league.
- Groningen: 9th in the table; the model rates their attack 7th and their defence 8th in the league.
- Our predictions for AZ matches: 2 of 3 correct.
- Our predictions for Groningen matches: 1 of 3 correct.
Match preview
A slight lean towards AZ (57%), though Groningen win 21% of the time in the model and the draw sits at 22%.
At home this season AZ average 2.00 points and 1.8 goals per game, conceding 1.0. Away from home Groningen take 1.60 points per game, scoring 2.6 and conceding 2.0. Shots on target, which drive our ratings, read 6.0 per game for AZ at home and 6.4 for Groningen on the road.
Current runs: Groningen have scored in 11 straight league matches.
The model expects 1.91 goals from AZ and 1.18 from Groningen; 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 10%, over 2.5 goals 60% and both teams to score 59%.
In their last 5 league meetings AZ won 3, Groningen won 1 and 1 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 1-110%
- 2-110%
- 1-09%
- 2-08%
- 3-16%
AZ form
- Lat Ajax0-12026-10-31
- Lvs Twente0-22026-10-25
- Dat Cambuur2-22026-10-18
- Lat Feyenoord0-22026-10-10
- Wvs Telstar1-02026-09-20
Groningen form
- Lvs Sparta Rotterdam2-32026-11-01
- Dat NEC2-22026-10-25
- Lvs Ajax2-52026-10-18
- Wat Excelsior5-12026-10-11
- Wvs PEC Zwolle3-02026-09-18
Head to head
- 2026-03-22Groningen 3-0 AZ
- 2025-08-10AZ 4-1 Groningen
- 2025-05-11AZ 3-0 Groningen
- 2024-08-25Groningen 0-0 AZ
- 2023-03-11AZ 1-0 Groningen
Prediction made 2026-11-08 15:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.