Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona prediction
Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Atletico Madrid31%3.18
- Draw25%4.04
- Barcelona44%2.28
Double chance
- Atletico Madrid or draw56%1.78
- Atletico Madrid or Barcelona75%1.33
- Draw or Barcelona69%1.46
Goals
- Over 2.562%1.62
- Under 2.538%2.60
Both teams to score
- Yes63%1.59
- No37%2.70
Match in numbers
This season, Atletico Madrid at home and Barcelona away
| Atletico Madrid (home) | Barcelona (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| Points per game | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Shots on target per game | 6.8 | 8.0 |
| Shots on target conceded | 3.2 | 3.8 |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
- Atletico Madrid have won their last 7 league matches.
- Barcelona have scored in 13 straight league matches.
- Atletico Madrid: 3rd in the table; the model rates their attack 3rd and their defence 3rd in the league.
- Barcelona: 1st in the table; the model rates their attack 1st and their defence 2nd in the league.
- Our predictions for Atletico Madrid matches: 3 of 3 correct.
- Our predictions for Barcelona matches: 2 of 3 correct.
Match preview
Hard to call. The model spreads it 31% for Atletico Madrid, 25% for the draw and 44% for Barcelona.
At home this season Atletico Madrid average 2.60 points and 2.2 goals per game, conceding 0.6. Away from home Barcelona take 3.00 points per game, scoring 4.4 and conceding 1.0. Shots on target, which drive our ratings, read 6.8 per game for Atletico Madrid at home and 8.0 for Barcelona on the road.
Current runs: Atletico Madrid have won their last 7 league matches; Barcelona have scored in 13 straight league matches.
The model expects 1.50 goals from Atletico Madrid and 1.68 from Barcelona; 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 10%, over 2.5 goals 62% and both teams to score 63%.
In their last 5 league meetings Atletico Madrid won 1 and Barcelona won 4.
Most likely scores
- 1-110%
- 1-29%
- 2-18%
- 0-17%
- 2-27%
Atletico Madrid form
- Wat Levante2-02026-10-31
- Wvs Deportivo de La Coruña1-02026-10-24
- Wat Espanyol1-02026-10-17
- Wat Alavés2-12026-10-10
- Wvs Real Madrid2-12026-09-20
Barcelona form
- Wvs Alavés6-12026-10-31
- Lvs Real Madrid1-22026-10-25
- Wat Real Betis5-22026-10-17
- Wvs Getafe3-02026-10-10
- Wat Sevilla3-12026-09-19
Head to head
- 2026-04-04Atletico Madrid 1-2 Barcelona
- 2025-12-02Barcelona 3-1 Atletico Madrid
- 2025-03-16Atletico Madrid 2-4 Barcelona
- 2024-12-21Barcelona 1-2 Atletico Madrid
- 2024-03-17Atletico Madrid 0-3 Barcelona
Prediction made 2026-11-08 19:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.