Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Atalanta62%1.60
- Draw22%4.58
- Parma16%6.37
Double chance
- Atalanta or draw84%1.19
- Atalanta or Parma78%1.28
- Draw or Parma38%2.66
Goals
- Over 2.548%2.09
- Under 2.552%1.92
Both teams to score
- Yes48%2.08
- No52%1.92
Match in numbers
This season, Atalanta at home and Parma away
| Atalanta (home) | Parma (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 4 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.20 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.25 |
| Shots on target per game | 6.6 | 3.2 |
| Shots on target conceded | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
- Atalanta: 13th in the table; the model rates their attack 8th and their defence 9th in the league.
- Parma: 18th in the table; the model rates their attack 20th and their defence 11th in the league.
- Our predictions for Atalanta matches: 1 of 4 correct.
- Our predictions for Parma matches: 2 of 4 correct.
Match preview
The model makes Atalanta clear favourites at 62%. The draw is rated at 22% and a win for Parma at 16%.
At home this season Atalanta average 2.00 points and 2.2 goals per game, conceding 1.6. Away from home Parma take 0.00 points per game, scoring 0.5 and conceding 2.2. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, Atalanta manage 6.6 per home game and Parma 3.2 per away game.
Expected goals from the model: Atalanta 1.70, Parma 0.89. The single most likely score is 1-0 (13%), and the chance of three or more goals is 48%.
In their last 5 league meetings Atalanta won 3, Parma won 1 and 1 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 1-013%
- 1-111%
- 2-011%
- 2-110%
- 0-07%
Atalanta form
- Dat Fiorentina2-22026-10-29
- Dvs Frosinone4-42026-10-25
- Lat AC Milan2-32026-10-18
- Wvs Venezia3-12026-10-12
- Lat Juventus0-22026-09-20
Parma form
- Dvs Udinese0-02026-10-28
- Lat Lazio1-22026-10-24
- Lvs Torino0-32026-10-19
- Lat Inter Milan0-32026-10-10
- Wvs Genoa2-12026-09-20
Head to head
- 2026-01-25Atalanta 4-0 Parma
- 2025-08-30Parma 1-1 Atalanta
- 2025-05-25Atalanta 2-3 Parma
- 2024-11-23Parma 1-3 Atalanta
- 2021-05-09Parma 2-5 Atalanta
Prediction made 2026-11-02 19:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.