Al Nassr vs NEOM prediction

Saudi Arabia · Saudi Pro League · 20 October 2026

Al Nassr
1 - 0Full time
NEOM
Al NassrDrawNEOM
Prediction correctModel pick before kick-off: Al Nassr to win (65%)
Our predictionAl Nassr to winStrong pick
65%Probability
1.55Fair odds
2-0Likely score
2.11-0.84Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Al Nassr65%1.55
  • Draw20%4.92
  • NEOM15%6.61

Double chance

  • Al Nassr or draw85%1.18
  • Al Nassr or NEOM80%1.25
  • Draw or NEOM35%2.82

Goals

  • Over 2.557%1.77
  • Under 2.543%2.31

Both teams to score

  • Yes50%2.01
  • No50%1.99

Match preview

The model makes Al Nassr clear favourites, with a 65% chance of winning. A draw is rated at 20% and a win for NEOM at 15%.

Expected goals from the model: Al Nassr 2.11, NEOM 0.84. The single most likely score is 2-0 (12%), and the chance of three or more goals is 57%.

Al Nassr have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (WDWLW).

NEOM have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (LDWWW).

In their last 2 league meetings Al Nassr won 2, NEOM won 0 and 0 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 2-012%
  • 1-011%
  • 2-110%
  • 1-19%
  • 3-08%

Al Nassr form

WLWDW
  • Wvs Al Diriyah3-02026-10-09
  • Dat Al Khaleej1-12026-09-12
  • Wvs Abha2-12026-09-09
  • Lat Al Ittihad1-22026-09-05
  • Wvs Al Taawoun2-12026-08-28

NEOM form

WWWDL
  • Lvs Al Ettifaq0-12026-10-17
  • Dat Al Hazem1-12026-10-10
  • Wvs Al Fateh4-22026-09-13
  • Wat Al Hilal2-02026-09-07
  • Wvs Al Khaleej3-02026-09-03

Head to head

  • 2026-03-07Al Nassr 1-0 NEOM
  • 2025-11-08NEOM 1-3 Al Nassr

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Analysis

This match was played before FootyMath launched: the prediction was calculated afterwards from the matches before its date only, the same way as our backtest, and is not counted in the live track record. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.