Betting markets
Model chances and the fair odds they imply
Match result
- Ajax49%2.03
- Draw24%4.16
- AZ27%3.74
Double chance
- Ajax or draw73%1.36
- Ajax or AZ76%1.32
- Draw or AZ51%1.97
Goals
- Over 2.557%1.74
- Under 2.543%2.35
Both teams to score
- Yes59%1.68
- No41%2.46
Match in numbers
This season, Ajax at home and AZ away
| Ajax (home) | AZ (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Shots on target per game | 7.0 | 6.8 |
| Shots on target conceded | 4.2 | 3.8 |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 60% |
- Ajax are unbeaten in 6 league matches.
- Ajax: 2nd in the table; the model rates their attack 4th and their defence 3rd in the league.
- AZ: 5th in the table; the model rates their attack 5th and their defence 2nd in the league.
- Our predictions for Ajax matches: 2 of 3 correct.
- Our predictions for AZ matches: 2 of 3 correct.
Match preview
A slight lean towards Ajax (49%), though AZ win 27% of the time in the model and the draw sits at 24%.
At home this season Ajax average 1.20 points and 2.2 goals per game, conceding 1.8. Away from home AZ take 2.00 points per game, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.4. Shots on target, which drive our ratings, read 7.0 per game for Ajax at home and 6.8 for AZ on the road.
Current runs: Ajax are unbeaten in 6 league matches.
The model expects 1.64 goals from Ajax and 1.34 from AZ; 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11%, over 2.5 goals 57% and both teams to score 59%.
In their last 5 league meetings AZ won 3 and 2 ended level.
Most likely scores
- 1-111%
- 2-19%
- 1-08%
- 1-27%
- 0-17%
Ajax form
- Wat Sparta Rotterdam2-12026-10-25
- Wat Groningen5-22026-10-18
- Dvs NEC1-12026-10-10
- Dvs Excelsior2-22026-09-19
- Wvs Willem II5-12026-09-15
AZ form
- Lvs Twente0-22026-10-25
- Dat Cambuur2-22026-10-18
- Lat Feyenoord0-22026-10-10
- Wvs Telstar1-02026-09-20
- Dvs Willem II1-12026-09-11
Head to head
- 2026-02-08AZ 1-1 Ajax
- 2025-10-18Ajax 0-2 AZ
- 2025-03-16Ajax 2-2 AZ
- 2024-12-08AZ 2-1 Ajax
- 2024-02-25AZ 2-0 Ajax
Prediction made 2026-10-31 19:17 UTC and frozen at kick-off. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.