AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United prediction

Match preview

AFC Bournemouth have the edge at 47%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 27% and a win for Leeds United at 26%.

At home this season AFC Bournemouth average 1.25 points and 1.2 goals per game, conceding 1.0. Away from home Leeds United take 1.33 points per game, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, AFC Bournemouth manage 5.8 per home game and Leeds United 4.3 per away game.

AFC Bournemouth sit 15th in the table, but their underlying numbers rank 6th in the league, so the model rates them higher than their position suggests.

Expected goals from the model: AFC Bournemouth 1.57, Leeds United 1.14. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), and the chance of three or more goals is 51%.

In their last 4 league meetings AFC Bournemouth won 1, Leeds United won 1 and 2 ended level.

Most likely scores

• 1-112%
• 1-011%
• 2-19%
• 2-08%
• 0-18%

AFC Bournemouth form

• Wvs Sunderland2-02026-10-18
• Lat Chelsea1-52026-10-10
• Lvs Liverpool0-12026-09-20
• Dvs Brentford2-22026-09-12
• Dat Newcastle United2-22026-09-05

Leeds United form

• Dvs Manchester United1-12026-10-18
• Lat Arsenal1-22026-10-10
• Dvs Crystal Palace0-02026-09-20
• Wvs Newcastle United4-12026-09-14
• Dat Brighton & Hove Albion1-12026-09-05