Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur prediction

England · Premier League · 24 October 2026

Chelsea4th · 13 pts
Sat 24 Oct
Tottenham Hotspur16th · 6 pts
ChelseaDrawTottenham Hotspur
Our predictionChelsea to winLean
57%Probability
1.75Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.81-1.23Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Chelsea57%1.75
  • Draw22%4.60
  • Tottenham Hotspur21%4.72

Double chance

  • Chelsea or draw79%1.27
  • Chelsea or Tottenham Hotspur78%1.28
  • Draw or Tottenham Hotspur43%2.33

Goals

  • Over 2.558%1.71
  • Under 2.542%2.41

Both teams to score

  • Yes59%1.70
  • No41%2.43

Match preview

Chelsea have the edge at 57%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 22% and a win for Tottenham Hotspur at 21%.

Expected goals from the model: Chelsea 1.81, Tottenham Hotspur 1.23. The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%), and the chance of three or more goals is 58%.

Chelsea have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (WWLDL).

Tottenham Hotspur have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (WDLDD).

In the table Chelsea are 4th with 13 points and Tottenham Hotspur 16th with 6.

In their last 5 league meetings Chelsea won 5, Tottenham Hotspur won 0 and 0 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-110%
  • 2-110%
  • 1-09%
  • 2-08%
  • 1-27%

Chelsea form

LDLWW
  • Wat Everton2-02026-10-17
  • Wvs AFC Bournemouth5-12026-10-10
  • Lat Brentford0-32026-09-18
  • Dvs Hull City2-22026-09-12
  • Lat Arsenal1-22026-09-06

Tottenham Hotspur form

DDLDW
  • Wvs Coventry City3-12026-10-19
  • Dat Manchester United1-12026-10-10
  • Lvs Aston Villa2-32026-09-19
  • Dvs Everton0-02026-09-12
  • Dat Nottingham Forest0-02026-09-05

Head to head

  • 2026-05-19Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur
  • 2025-11-01Tottenham Hotspur 0-1 Chelsea
  • 2025-04-03Chelsea 1-0 Tottenham Hotspur
  • 2024-12-08Tottenham Hotspur 3-4 Chelsea
  • 2024-05-02Chelsea 2-0 Tottenham Hotspur

More Premier League predictions

All matches ›

Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.